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Strategies & Market Trends : Bosco & Crossy's stock picks,talk area -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Crossy who wrote (3244)1/14/2003 6:09:05 PM
From: Crossy  Respond to of 37387
 
"BEAUTY IN THE DARK" and THE CONCEPT OF ABSURD VALUE

the "Random-Walk" hypothesis is based on "evenly" distributed information. Clearly in many cases, this assumption doesn't hold. If one is able by inference, conjectures and DD to fill in missing pieces wrt. to industry environment, book value projections, demand factors, concentration, effect of restructuring of a company etc. then the investor will be able to get a significant edge over the retail crowd relying on the input of others..

No wonder, that post-Bankruptcy stocks are one of the nicest way to apply these techniques. I can only encourage everyone to analyze and share information on such and other SPECIAL SITUATIONS.

The current environment is not "Growth" or "Tech" oriented. What the market has appetite for seems to be VALUE and CASH FLOW. Both are nicely predictable IMHO. One has only to tune in and listen to the market's music. Bush's dividend relief is further strengthening this underlying theme. The quest for greed is instantly turned into a quest for value. What a difference, and a healthy one I might add..

If you ever watched BABYLON 5 - a SciFi series that I really love(d) you should be aware about the concept of "Beauty in the Dark". One episode was even named after this mood. That's the way I'd like to describes the portfolio model of the companies I like to get a hold on.

stay tuned and expect more
CROSSY