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To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (3960)	1/14/2003 6:46:11 PM
From: BWAC	Respond to of 13403

Here is what i think from another thread post: INTC numbers may be negative for AMAT, KLAC, etc, right now in the immediate future. I think no matter what INTC said that would probably be the case. However, If you go back over the last 11 years of INTC financials you will find that capex has never fell below depreciation before now. In 2003 as INTC has guided estimates. The lowest previous was a 1:1 ratio. In every case except 1 the next year was huge increases for capex. The exception would be (I think) 1997-1998 where both years were a 1:1 ratio, followed by a huge increase. So maybe now is bad. But pay attention to get set up for year 2004 as AMAT drops to new lows. Capex/Depreciation ratio is 3.9/4.8 or about .80, which I don't think is sustainable for long even at a maintenance level. The flip side of that is that INTC should be generating even more cash in 2003 primarily due to low capex. Maybe they up the dividend? Maybe they bank it to spend in 2004?

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (3960)	1/14/2003 8:33:13 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13403

OT *** Sarmad In 2001 Intel capex was >$7B. What did that do for AMAT stock performance? You could look it up. :) Or look here stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyiay[d20001214,20020114][pb30!d20,2!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!Lp14,3,3!Lf!Lk14]&pref=G Only a few days until SEMI reports and the report should be better because it includes December. Gottfried