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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rolatzi who wrote (25588)	1/15/2003 6:59:04 AM
From: jimsioi	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

rolatzi, good point on the Hui relative to Gold. I took your idea of looking at the HUI relative to the Gold price and extended it back as far as Stockcharts had data, as you'll see below. On the way down in '96 and '97 the ratio of the HUI to Gold was higher than it is now, in the .40s. Through the bear market the HUI got down to a ratio of .13 to Gold. It peaked in June three and one-half times that at 49.4. Since we have receded as Gold has gone higher and the miners have not. Something around 30 is mid range while the low 20s might be considered "value." Therefore, that the miners and in particular the HUI is lagging gold right now should not be a big surprise other than the fact that as gold rises we'd expect the HUI to rise faster by a factor of about three times given the supposed gearing.... Perhaps all the above leaves us just as confused as to the course of things as we started. Share owners for a variety of reasons, including, I think, the fact that they have handsome long term gains they don't want to lose, are more eager to sell than their futures brothers. Option expiration is also probably causing a short-term distortion this week in the shares. In the mean time of course the juniors have been ramping… I don't know what all this says other than …. if the HUI were to sell for .30 or less to Gold and Gold was at $350 I'd be a confident buyer. HUI vs GOLD - the longer monthly view. stockcharts.com[h,a]macayyay[d19950115,20030115][pb7!f][vc60][iLyb20,2.0]&pref=G