Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chaz who wrote (16167)	1/14/2003 10:07:44 PM
From: Wallace Rivers	Respond to of 78595

I made it clear in my first post that this was not the standard fare for this thread. I disagree with you almost 100% that this is a speculation on weather futures. First, the comparisons with last years abnormally cold winter are easy; they were, as I stated, blown away year over year as of 1/4/03, and slightly above the historical norm as of the same date. That is not speculation on weather futures. This week has, and will run, according to my calculation, on the order of 12-15 degrees colder than normal in Baltimore, as a benchmark. That is a lot of heating degree days. That is where my girlfriend lives, and where I have seen Petro trucks (a Star Gas subsidiary) driving around, and where I have talked to the drivers. The rest of Star Gas' major market (the northeast and mid-Atlantic) will be approximately just as cold. Where I live in the Northeast, it was -16 F last night, it will be somewhere between -15 F to -25 F overnight. Unless every weather prediction I have read for the next 5 days is dead wrong, then one could consider such "speculation" wrong. The most speculative element in this whole equation is the time frame beyond next week, I will grant you that. The long term forecasts that I have seen call for at least seasonally normal temperatures. So, this heating season has seen a great start for retailers of heating products in the northeast and mid-Atlantic, I believe this trend will continue.