To: Krikor who wrote (13540 ) 2/5/2003 5:47:00 AM From: elmatador Respond to of 14638 To prove my point: Alcatel dismisses telecoms 'recovery' By Martin Arnold in Paris Published: January 15 2003 4:00 | Last Updated: January 15 2003 4:00 <<Remember when I told that were no good news? Ok, that was what I meant!!!>>> Serge Tchuruk, chief executive of Alcatel, said yesterday that it was "too early to talk about a recovery" in the telecommunications sector despite fourth-quarter sales growth and debt reduction ahead of expectations. Shares in Alcatel rose 20 per cent after the French networking equipment company reassured investors its cost cutting was on track and said it had cut net debt from €2.66bn ($2.8bn) to below zero last year. Hopes of a revival in capital spending in the deal-starved sector drove up rival stocks, with Sweden's Ericsson closing up 11 per cent and Lucent Technologies and Nortel Networks both up more than 3 per cent by noon in New York. Alcatel, which has halved its workforce from 120,000 to 60,000 in the past two years, said its debt had fallen due to improved cashflow and the proceeds of a €645m mandatory convertible bond issue completed last month. "The fall in our break-even point is much faster than the contraction in the market, which means we should return to profitability in 2003," said Mr Tchuruk. Alcatel shares extended their recent rally, rising €1.14 to close at €6.70. The shares have rebounded from a low of €2.05 in September but are still below their 2000 high of almost €100. Alcatel said fourth-quarter sales growth would be "in the high twenties sequentially" due to a strong "seasonal pattern" and healthy sales of mobile and broadband equipment, particularly in Europe. "We are starting to think about growth again for 2003, which does not mean we have an idyllic view of this year," Mr Tchuruk said. "2003 will not be a good year by Alcatel's standards but we are making progress." Analysts were more sceptical. Matthew Little at Bear Stearns said: "Alcatel always enjoys a seasonal end-of-year sales jump and underlying market conditions in the telecoms sector have still not improved." Alcatel said its break-even point, or sales needed to achieve profitability, was €4.1bn in the fourth quarter and further cost-cutting was expected to reduce it to €3bn by the end of 2003. It also said 2002 results, due to be announced on February 4, would see it break even at an operating level in the fourth quarter despite writing off €150m of obsolete inventory. Net debt could fall further this year with plans for asset disposals worth more than €1bn.