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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Techplayer who wrote (21544)	1/15/2003 12:12:18 PM
From: Jorj X Mckie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57110

I dunno, but that seems like a real non-forecast.

To: Techplayer who wrote (21544)	1/15/2003 12:48:02 PM
From: Techplayer	Respond to of 57110

various comments from news yesterday: 3:09 (Dow Jones) The NBER is out with a new memo saying it is still unwilling to officially end the recession most economists agree ended in 2001. They're waiting to make sure the "hypothetical" chance of a double dip recession has clearly passed. This is normal for the NBER, and it could talk a lot of time before an official recession end date is marked. (MSD) 2:52 (Dow Jones) In another ominous sign for the private-equity industry, long-term returns from investing in VC and LBOs are beginning to weaken. The 20-year performance for the entire private-equity industry slipped to 14.5% through the end of the 3Q, according to new data from Thomson Venture Economics and the National Venture Capital Association. Although still a significantly higher performance than public equities, the return "barely meets" the 15% to 20% private-equity fund investors typically expect when making such investments, says Jesse Reyes, vice president at Thomson Venture Economics. "While the final outcome may ultimately redeem these investments, it does appear that it will be an uphill climb to meet investor expectations." (JAW) 2:35 (Dow Jones) Fed funds futures now see about a 40% chance of a 25- basis-point cut at the May 6 FOMC meeting and about a 20% chance of a quarter-point rate cut at the June 24/25 Fed meeting. (CMN) 2:29 (Dow Jones) Take that, magazine publishers. New York media-investment bank AdMedia Partners is taking a harder look at the recent monthly and annual ad-revenue data from the Publishers Information Bureau, a closely watched measure of magazine success. According to AdMedia, while the data appear to show a rise in ad revenue in 2002, in fact "PIB data can be misleading," says Jay Kirsch, an AdMedia vice-president. The firm suggests that while ad page volume is looking quite robust, "publishers are not converting those pages into revenue at the same level as they have previously." AdMedia points out that the gap is widening between PIB data and widely viewed forecasts of media spending from Interpublic Group of Cos.' (IPG) Universal McCann. "Both numbers are estimates, but the trend is undeniable and worrisome," says Kirsch. (BMS)