Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DebtBomb who wrote (24426)	1/16/2003 10:46:54 AM
From: Softechie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

Philly Fed...not that important... Highlights Briefing.com Forecast: 17.0 Market Consensus: 9.0 Key Factors 8 point rise in NY Fed mfg index provides a preview given adjacent region and similar industrial mix. Seasonal effect suspect given similar rise last year amid the same lack of capital goods investment. New orders may edge higher though NY fell off. Boosted by year end volume, lower level possible in Jan. Shipments should provide a stronger lift given the boost in Dec orders. Employment also expected to improve but will remain weak until mfg upturn has legs. Prices recieved expected to return to negative, prices paid (inputs) running strong. Injury to profits. 6 month outlook bouncing on either side of 50. Tremendous volatility in the small regional index. Average monthly movement of 8 points over the last half year. Philadephia Fed district includes only the small region of Southern NJ, Central/Eastern PA, Northern DE. Big Picture The manufacturing outlook will remain weak until demand (new orders) shows sustainable growth rather than simply inventory restocking and month to month volatility. The upturn which arrived in 2002 largely reflected low inventories as new orders rolled right to production. The index has been extremely volatile over the last half year with an average monthly move of 8 points. The outlook is dependent on an upturn in business investment which left a drop back to contraction in Aug and Oct. The Philly index is especially volatile given the small region covered. The manufacturing sector moves in mini-cycles compared to the overall economy and the regional measures move in even shorter cycles with far more month to month volatility.