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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (2702)	1/16/2003 1:44:31 PM
From: Louis V. Lambrecht	Respond to of 5423

Multi year support 96.5ish. Got me by surprise too. eom

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (2702)	1/16/2003 9:47:49 PM
From: 4figureau	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5423

GOLD Snippet Richard Russell Dow Theory Letters 17 January, 2003 Gold --Gold remains overbought, but so far gold has not corrected. Whether this will continue, obviously I don't know. I do know that in very strong or bullish trends, an item can "correct" simply by holding in a tight high range while the moving averages continue to rise and the overbought situation is "worked off" through time, even as the price tends to hold. This could be what's happening to gold. It's remarkable that gold has been holding above 350 day after day, even though it is overbought. How do I know gold is overbought? The 200-day MA of gold is down at 321, so gold at today's price around 352 is 9.6% above its 200-day MA. That's a wide spread, and normally an item that is near 10% above its MA will correct to the downside. The correction may come to gold, but so far, Gold has been holding. In the face of persistent negative comments in the media, that's a pretty strong performance for gold. Even its detractors have to be impressed. Later comments on gold -- A late surge in gold today carried the metal to a new high. The gold stocks were up, but almost reluctantly up. I take this as skepticism towards the gold move -- even on the part of gold stock shareholders. Nobody can really believe that gold is dirt cheap at this time. Amazing -- they believe that dollars are money, but they can't believe that gold is the only real money. That will change "as time goes by." Truth always emerges, even it takes weeks, months or years. 321gold.com

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (2702)	1/17/2003 11:09:15 AM
From: 4figureau	Respond to of 5423

01/17 10:15 U.S. Jan. U. of Michigan Sentiment Index Fell to 83.7 By Andrew Ward Washington, Jan. 17 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly fell in January for the first time in three months, a University of Michigan survey showed. The university's sentiment index dropped to 83.7 from 86.7 in December, people with access to the preliminary report said. Consumers' confidence has dropped in eight of the past 12 months and reached a nine-year low of 80.6 in October. The report suggests that consumers aren't convinced that President George W. Bush and Congress will agree to a plan to stimulate the economy and create jobs. The lengthy buildup to possible military action in the Middle East may also be taking a toll. ``With the imminence and inevitability of a war growing, it is only natural and indeed totally consistent with anecdotal information for consumers to be more jittery about the near future,'' said Stephen Stanley, an economist at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut. While Americans continued to buy autos and homes over the past two years, the holiday shopping season was disappointing for retailers such as Federated Department Stores Inc. and Best Buy Co. A number of factors may have contributed. Stocks fell in December. The Standard & Poor's 500 index dropped 6 percent on the month. Payrolls unexpectedly fell by 101,000 in December, while the unemployment rate stayed at 6 percent. The slow recovery from recession in 2001 hasn't revived hiring; the economy has lost 1.6 million jobs in the past two years, the first two-year drop since 1957-58. Future Pessimism ``People aren't going to feel as confident as they did in the late 90's until the labor market feels like it did in the late 90's,'' said Vince Boberski, a senior economist at RBC Dain Rauscher Inc. in Chicago. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expected a reading of 87 for the January preliminary index, which is based on a survey of 250 households. The final index, based on a survey of 500 households, will be released Jan. 31. The university's preliminary current conditions index, which reflects Americans' perception of their financial situation and whether it's a good time to buy big-ticket items, rose to 96.9 from 96 in December. The preliminary expectations index, based on optimism about the next one to five years, fell to 75.2 from 80.8 last month. Earlier, the Commerce Department reported the U.S. trade deficit widened to a record $40.1 billion in November as imports surged following a resumption of business at West Coast ports. U.S. industrial production fell 0.2 percent in December, the Federal Reserve reported, and the plant-use rate fell to 75.4 percent. Industrial production fell 0.6 percent for all of 2002, following a 3.5 percent decline in 2001, the first back-to-back annual declines since 1974-1975. The president's proposed $674 billion stimulus package is aimed at jump starting an economy that analysts estimate grew at just at 1.5 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter. The slow recovery from recession in 2001 hasn't revived hiring; the economy has lost 1.6 million jobs in the past two years, the first two- year drop since 1957-58. Stocks fell and bonds rose after the report. The 4 percent November 2012 note rose about 1/2, pushing down its yield 7 basis points to 4.01 percent. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. The Dow Jones Industrials average fell 60 points, or 0.7 percent The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 6 points, or 0.7 percent, at 10:15 a.m. in New York. siliconinvestor.com

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (2702)	1/17/2003 11:12:17 AM
From: 4figureau	Respond to of 5423

Dollar hits new euro low The US dollar has tumbled to its lowest level against the euro in more than three years. Defiant comments from Iraqi President Saddam Hussein increased fears the US would take military action in the Gulf region. The euro, which broke through $1.06 on Thursday on news UN weapons inspectors had found warheads in Iraq, extended gains above $1.065 in mid-morning European trade on Friday. "This is a case of the dollar coming under pressure across the board... The market is now positioning itself for a [weapons] find that could trigger a real conflict," said Ian Ballard, senior currency strategist at BNP Paribas. Europe cheers The euro's rise against the American currency was welcomed by the European Commission on Friday. "It is a better reflection of the fundamentals of the European economy. It is welcome," said a Commission spokesman on economic and monetary affairs. As the dollar slid to new lows, the price of gold, a traditional safe haven during periods of international tension, reached a new six-year high. Gold was quoted at $357.8 an ounce in late-morning London trade on Friday, up $4 from the end of European trade the day before. "I think that we are going to stay above US$355 and possibly test higher with more weakness in the US dollar. Anything can move it a few dollars in this market," Peter Tse, dealer at Scotia Mocatta in Hong Kong, said. Oil prices, however, dipped slightly following a report in the German weekly Der Spiegel that Iraq was considering a plan for its leader Saddam Hussein to go into exile. The price of benchmark Brent North Sea crude oil for February delivery edged to $30.20 dollars per barrel from $30.58 dollars at the previous close. The Iraqi president's comments were made during a speech to mark the twelfth anniversary of the start of the Gulf War in 1991. He called on his people to rise up and defend the nation against a new US-led attack and promised that Iraq's enemies would face "suicide" at the gates of his capital. news.bbc.co.uk

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (2702)	1/17/2003 11:14:07 AM
From: 4figureau	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5423

China The Fastest-Growing Oil Consumer In 2002, IEA Says Friday January 17, 7:08 am ET LONDON -(Dow Jones)- The International Energy Agency has upped its 2002 growth forecast for oil demand in China, saying it was likely the fastest-growing consumer of oil last year. In its monthly oil market report, the agency raised its average demand growth estimate for 2002 by 20,000 barrels a day, or 5.7%, to 280,000 b/d, . The figures reflect the robustness of the Chinese economy and the growing importance of the mainland as a key market for oil consumption, analysts said. "It's not a surprise," said Gordon Kwan, regional energy analyst at HSBC in Hong Kong. "Given the shape the global economy is in, China is the only bright spot. We expect it to become the world's second-largest oil market by 2008, surpassing Japan." Much of the growing demand stems from power generation needs, as well as increased consumption of refined products such as gasoline and diesel, Kwan said. "Entry to the World Trade Organization means that tariffs on automobiles will come down, and people are also becoming wealthier, so they're buying more cars," he said. The IEA said Chinese statistical information pointed to continued strong refinery runs through the end of December, with refining throughput during the fourth quarter reportedly around record highs reached in September. The agency also quoted China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association data that put refinery runs in November at 4.63 million b/d. Demand for naphtha - a product derived from crude oil and used in petrochemical production such as plastics - in November may have exceeded a record high of 600,000 b/d in April, the IEA said. In addition, demand for jet fuel and kerosene hit record highs of roughly 240, 000 b/d and 260,000 b/d in September and October on the back of increased consumption, the agency said. -By Dermot Doherty, Dow Jones Newswires; +44-(0)20-7842-9488; dermot.doherty@ dowjones.com In its monthly oil market report, the agency raised its average demand growth estimate for 2002 by 20,000 barrels a day to 280,000 b/d, a growth rate of 5.7%. (In an item that ran at 1153 GMT, misstated that 5.7% referred to the increase in the growth.) biz.yahoo.com