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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jimsioi who wrote (25796)	1/16/2003 4:35:22 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Remember too that options expire tomorrow. Part of gold shares lagging may be due to options. Either way we'll find out for sure next week. quote.cboe.com Max pain on the XAU looks to be about 75, trading 77 currently. Again usually max pain is achieved anywhere from 1-2 weeks before expiration. I don't think it'll be much of a factor tomorrow, but it's another detail to watch.

To: jimsioi who wrote (25796)	1/16/2003 5:09:34 PM
From: isopatch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Jims <How about those energy stocks> Right on! EENC is turning into a LT monster for the PF. What a great fundamental AWA technical story?! Just about every gasser and OS in sight had a nice up day. Some were very strong to the upside. EENC, CRZO, ROYL and laggard PQUE were all up. Portfolio easily finished the day at a substantial new all time record high. GO GOLD.....GO GAS. Isopatch

To: jimsioi who wrote (25796)	1/16/2003 9:51:25 PM
From: Roebear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

jims101, Just want to note I enjoy your discussion of the technicals of recent gold moves. I have never done a study to see how well the XAU/HUI to POG lag shows on the charts, though I think it is showing now, but I have often noticed this lag in the gold stocks vs POG, particularly since 1996. This often presages a good move up, sometimes a headfake down, sometimes the real thing down, ggg. The key there is, it is more often a good sign. In short term in the past, sometimes the HUI/XAU to POG lag is only noticeable via tape reading, but this is currently taking place over a much larger time period than normal, which would be from a day trade to a week or two. There are various explanations for this long lag, all of which are guesses on my part. For one, the stocks may be subject to shorting/option pressures due to hedging of gold stocks against gold physical (futures/options) positions. This could be going on in two different directions from bear and bull gold camps. Like trench warfare, things are being held up at one "battlefield" until one side or the other makes a breakthrough. I have some other guesses, but am too bashful to present them at this time, when they are not yet fully dressed. Just a mention here, that POG has been going up in triangles since the HUI formed a seven day flat line (NR-7), AND BTW, so far that is still a breakaway gap on the HUI from the first days of December... Best, Roebear