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Strategies & Market Trends : YEEHAW CANDIDATES -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Sergio H who wrote (1064)1/16/2003 6:34:43 PM
From: Mike  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 23958
 
Godot,

First thanks for the effort so far. First as far as profitability. The sales projections are for $70-$90M. Based on this sales range the company will lose between -0.11 to -0.20 in 2003. The company has the possibility of turning a profit in 2004. I think there maybe a realistic opportunity of becoming break even this year. Most likely in the fourth qtr.

But lets assume this current year they will lose -0.11. And first qtr of 2004 they break even. They think longer term that Angiomax alone could be a $500M drug conservatively. I think this is 5 yrs out. So do analyst value the stock according to sales?

One item to consider in determining stock price is to look at the balance sheet going forward. Currently for Angiomax the COGS (cost of goods sold) for Angiomax is 37-40%. The company will be using a new manufacturing process that will bring this COGS down to the 25-28%. This process is called the Chemilog process. This process has been approved by the FDA. They are just waiting for the final letter from the FDA before starting this up. So the COGS will drop 9-15 percentage points lower. Not lower by 9-15% but percentage points.

Let me know if this helps in terms of placing a "value" on the stock.

Thanks,
Mike