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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: cfoe who wrote (31304)	1/16/2003 6:54:55 PM
From: slacker711	Respond to of 196483

What could be behind this better than 30% QoQ increase? Higher 1X shipments into U.S.? I am pretty sure that Cooters post has the answer to this....shipments into India. They might also have been hurt a little bit this quarter by the fact that PCS had slightly higher than normal inventories going into this quarter. Unfortunately, the flip side to the strength in the 1st Q is the weakness in the 4th. They were down about 5% sequentially in what should have been the strongest quarter of the year. This means that they expect to ship 31.4% of 2003's CDMA phones in Q1. Either they expect a big drop-off in the rest of the year or they are being very conservative. Samsung is usually pretty conservative....but it worries me that the GSM first quarter shipments are 21% of the total anticipated for the year. Why would they be so conservative for the rest of the year on the CDMA side and not on the GSM? The logical thing to do would be to cut both equally. Do you have any historical data showing Samsung CDMA sales by quarter that would shed light on this? Not that I can find.....but I'll see if I can dig something up in the archives. If Samsung's results are indicative of the overall market, we may see weakness in the QTL division this quarter and strength next quarter. One positive aspect to Samsung's call was the comments on ASP's. They are expecting big growth into India next quarter but still expect overall export ASP's to be trending up over the course of the year. Slacker