SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Rascal who wrote (66456)1/16/2003 7:37:20 PM
From: stockman_scott  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 281500
 
The 'morning after' regime change: Picking up the pieces

Disposing of a dictator requires picking up pieces

By John Hughes
Commentary
from the January 15, 2003 edition
The Christian Science Monitor

SALT LAKE CITY – While public attention is focused on a US military build-up for war in Iraq, the Bush administration is quietly thinking through what comes after Saddam Hussein.

Exiled Iraqi opposition leaders met with President Bush last week, and are due to meet among themselves in the next few days in the northern Iraqi town of Salahuddin. Their aim is to participate in the transition to democracy after Mr. Hussein has left the scene. Like most politicians, their ambition is to lead, as well as participate. This isn't as simple as it seems, for the exiled Iraqi opposition is fragmented and, come Hussein's departure, will face competition for power from the opposition to Hussein that has remained inside Iraq.


That opposition is underground - very underground, for Hussein disposes of it quickly when it raises its head - but it will undoubtedly emerge when Iraq is liberated.

Iraq is thus likely to face the same jostling between internal and external dissidents as confronted South Africa when blacks came to power, and as overtook Afghanistan after the Taliban's overthrow, and as will confront Cuba after Fidel Castro's eclipse.

Clearly the US, which will spearhead any military liberation of Iraq, will have to assume major responsibility for establishing civilian order and political stability.

The exiled dissidents said Mr. Bush told them he wants a short military occupation in Iraq and a speedy transition to democracy.

That's in line with his promise in a West Point speech in June when he said the US "has no territorial ambitions. We don't seek an empire. Our nation is committed to freedom for ourselves and for others."

Early administration ponderings about what should succeed Hussein revolved around a military government such as Gen. Douglas MacArthur headed in Japan after World War II. Those have been wisely discarded. Wisely, because such a regime would be intensely irritating to much of the Arab world, and smack of colonialism.

Instead, according to documents obtained by The New York Times last week, the administration now seems bent on a military presence for perhaps 18 months to maintain security, while a strong civilian administrator gets the country running and nurtures the seeds of democracy. This could be an American, or a nominee from the UN.

No names are being leaked for this critical role, but several come to mind. Former Sen. George Mitchell (D) of Maine has successfully undertaken a number of difficult nation-uniting missions. Seasoned US diplomats with expertise in the area include Frank G. Wisner, Richard W. Murphy, and Thomas Pickering. Press speculation suggests that Secretary of State Colin Powell will not serve a second term in a Bush presidency. He is a doubtful candidate for Iraq, unless in retirement he could be persuaded of the assignment's importance. If one looked for a soldier-turned-civilian, there is Norman Schwarzkopf, the victor of the earlier Gulf War campaign. Any nominations from the UN would include Lakhdar Brahimi, the Algerian diplomat who played a similar role in Afghanistan.

Thus Bush, who in his presidential campaign played down a nation-building role for the US, has been thrust into it by events. If you're a world leader disposing of dictators, you must pick up the pieces and stay around to help build democracy. It is expensive, and challenging. As a Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) study group declared about the post-Hussein outlook: "Reconstruction of Iraq will be difficult, confusing, and dangerous."

On the economic front, existing active oil fields must be swiftly secured during military operations. After liberation, the CFR group estimates $30 billion to $40 billion of new investment will be needed to restore productive wells and develop new ones. The US and other oil-dependent countries have a vested, and reasonable, interest in restoring Iraqi production to the levels of earlier years.

But this must be done while convincing Iraqis that the oil remains theirs, and its marketing will underpin their progress and economic development.

Politically, the villains of the Hussein regime must be brought to justice. The talented, oppressed populace must become confident in freedom. Diverse groups and factions must subdue their differences in the quest for democracy.

If the substantial US role in all this is inept, the harvest will be years of anti-American suspicion and rancor in the region. If it is successful, Iraq could become an example for democratic reform and economic progress in other tormented lands of the Arab world.

• John Hughes, editor and chief operating officer of the Deseret News, is a former editor of the Monitor.

US track record on nation building

Country /Years Multilateral or Unilateral /Democracy after 10 yrs.?
1. Afghanistan 2001-present Multilateral ?
2. Haiti 1994 Multilateral NO
3. Panama 1989 Unilateral YES
4. Grenada 1983 Multilateral YES
5. Cambodia 1970-73 Unilateral NO
6. South Vietnam 1965-73 Unilateral NO
7. Dominican Rep. 1965-66 Unilateral NO
8. Japan 1945-52 Multilateral YES
9. West Germany 1944-49 Multilateral YES
10. Italy 1944-47 Multilateral YES
11. Dominican Rep. 1916-24 Unilateral NO
12. Cuba 1917-22 Unilateral NO
13. Haiti 1915-1919 Unilateral NO
14. Honduras 1924-1925 Unilateral NO
15. Nicaragua 1909-27 Unilateral NO
16. Mexico 1914 Unilateral NO
17. Nicaragua 1909 Unilateral NO
18. Cuba 1906-1909 Unilateral NO

NOTE: Included are only the cases where American ground troops are committed; excluded are cases of humanitarian interventions, such as Somalia (1993) and Bosnia (1995) and cases where the US used proxies to overthrow hostile regimes.

COMPILED BY MINXIN PEI AND SARA KASPER

csmonitor.com



To: Rascal who wrote (66456)1/17/2003 1:42:34 AM
From: Karen Lawrence  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 281500
 
Chicago City Council votes against war
Resolution calls Saddam a 'tyrant'
Thursday, January 16, 2003 Posted: 4:37 PM EST (2137 GMT)

cnn.com

Charlene Pyskoty expresses her opinion on American involvement in Iraq during the Chicago City Council meeting.


CHICAGO, Illinois (AP) -- The City Council voted 46-1 Thursday against a unilateral military attack on Iraq unless it is shown to be a real threat to the United States.

The resolution said military action against Iraq would cost billions of dollars, and during the debate, council members discussed how federal budget cuts could affect programs that benefit Chicago residents.

"We don't want our boys and our girls to go to war," Alderman Dorothy Tillman said.

Anti-war statements have been passed in others cities, including San Francisco, Seattle, Ithaca, New York, and Kalamazoo, Michigan.

Chicago's resolution calls Saddam Hussein "a tyrant who should be removed from power" for the good of the people of Iraq and neighboring countries.

But, the resolution continues, "It not at all clear that a unilateral U.S. military action would result in the installation of a free and democratic Iraqi government."

The resolution, however, gives unconditional support to U.S. military personnel.

"Everybody's against war," Mayor Richard Daley said after the resolution passed. "No one is for war."

Also Thursday, 17 anti-war protesters were arrested in Los Angeles for blocking a sidewalk outside a downtown federal building. About 75 others applauded and shouted, "No blood for oil!" as the 17 were handcuffed and taken away in buses to be cited for misdemeanors.

The demonstration was organized by the American Friends Service Committee.



To: Rascal who wrote (66456)1/17/2003 9:00:07 AM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 281500
 
Anti-war movement in America grows stronger

January 17, 2003

Let's make money, not war, say US protesters
From Tim Reid and Anne Dixey in Washington

timesonline.co.uk

IF GEORGE BUSH looks out of the Oval Office window tomorrow he will probably see the biggest peace demonstration in Washington since the Vietnam War.

But he will not see hippies or long-haired peaceniks. He will be looking instead at a huge cross-section of Middle America: doctors, corporate lawyers, chief executives, lorry drivers, nurses, military families, grandmothers, even families of September 11 victims. And they won’t be burning the American flag. They will be carrying it with pride.

Most Americans support President Bush and his desire to disarm Iraq, but polls show that they do not believe he has yet made the case for using military force, and across this vast nation there are deep misgivings about a war.

Every week surveys find a consistent number of between 60 and 70 per cent who oppose a war without UN backing or the discovery of a “smoking gun” by weapons inspectors in Iraq. Yesterday the Pew Research Centre reported that without clear evidence of Saddam Hussein’s weapons programme, only 29 per cent would support an invasion.

Until last June, Robert Hinkley was an international corporate laywer billing clients $500 an hour and earning more than $1 million a year.

He marched against a war in October, in Augusta, Maine, and has helped to organise nine busloads, 450 people, to make the 17-hour journey to Washington on Saturday from his home town of Bangor. “This thing is very mainstream, and it’s going to get bigger and more vociferous,” he said. “When I marched in October there were teenagers up to 80-year-olds, blue-collar and white-collar workers. People are very concerned about this war. But at the same time they are worried about appearing unpatriotic. Many have let the President go this far, but underneath it all, they are thinking: ‘Why are we really doing this?’” The problem for the peace movement is that it lacks a leader or a rallying point. It is as if it is somehow unpatriotic to criticise the President’s war aims. No leading politicians have been brave enough to oppose Mr Bush, particularly those Democrats running for president and terrified of being on the wrong side of the issue.

But there are signs that the anti-war movement, though still small, is gathering momentum as the threat of war increases, and as thousands of troops leave for the Gulf.

The anti-war movement of the 21st century communicates mainly through the internet and includes many middle-class conservatives who love their country but worry about its huge power and their President’s motives.

On Monday a group of prominent Republican business executives published a full-page letter in the Wall Street Journal headed “A Republican Dissent on Iraq”.

It began: “Let’s be clear. We supported the Gulf War. We supported our intervention in Afghanistan. We accept the logic of a just war. But Mr President, your war on Iraq does not pass the test. It is not a just war.” It continued: “The world wants Saddam Hussein disarmed. But you must find a better way to do it.”

United for Peace, the organiser of Saturday’s march, has brought together more than 140 organisations, and is backed by religious and civic organisations, including the National Council of Churches, Business Leaders for Sensible Priorities, Veteran for Common Cause and Physicians for Social Responsibility.

Many thousands of these protesters will come from America’s main trade unions.

“It shows that it’s not just a bunch of people in dreadlocks out there,” Jason Mark, an organiser, said. “Blue-collar people are seen as having a lot of salt-of-the-earth wisdom and legitimacy. They’re not the usual suspects when it comes to peace and justice issues.”

Like many business leaders, the unions are worried about the economic impact of a war. David Welsh, a former San Francisco postman, is worried about the estimated $200 billion cost of an Iraqi campaign.

“That could mean less federal spending on unemployment benefits, health care and other areas that affect working class people,” he said.

Many chief executives believe that Mr Bush should be focusing on the fragile US economy, not attacking a country 8,000 miles from Washington. This is hardly 1967. The message today is: “Make Money, Not War.”

Last month Win Without War, the most mainstream of the anti-war coalitions, announced its formation with a carefully worded mission statement: “We are patriotic Americans who share the belief that Saddam Hussein cannot be allowed to possess weapons of mass destruction. But we believe that a pre-emptive military invasion of Iraq will harm American national interests.”

In August Daphne Reed, a grandmother, founded Mothers Against War from her home in Massachusetts.

“The Government has used the horror of September 11 to strike fear into the hearts of the US people,” she said. “Do they think Americans are stupid? Because we are not . We love our country deeply. My father fought in both world wars. He taught me patriotism. This is not patriotism.”

On Capitol Hill, every senior Democrat voted for Mr Bush’s Iraqi war resolution.Few politicians will join tomorrow’s march.

Many Hollywood luminaries have opposed a war. Martin Sheen, the star of The West Wing, led a march of 10,000 in Los Angeles last weekend. Others are being told by their agents that to do so publicly would harm their careers. Michael Kieschnick, a march organiser, said: “When those millions get engaged, whether through street events, letter writing or visiting the representatives, Bush will have to pause.”