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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alias Shrugged who wrote (215215)	1/17/2003 12:12:18 AM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 436258

Mike: Good comments. Obviously, each of us has to make up his own mind, but at this end, I see us heading for a down-and-dirty, thirties style depresion. Why so negative? Because of "pushing on a string". The Fed can stuff all the greenbacks it wants into the system, but if and when Joe Three-pack starts pulling in his horns and heading for his storm cellar, this nutty game will unwind. Might Greenprint's dream, that all he has to do is keep Joe borrowing and spending until corporate spending kicks in, come to fruition? Not a chance. Business around the world knows that massive excess capacity is the emerging playing field and business is already hunkering down for the coming squeeze. Besides which, business has debt coming out the ying-yang and a profits implosion. Just making the interest payments is becoming the overwhelming consideration for most. That, and the desire to simply "survive" has most in continuous "downsize" mode. Unfortunately of course, that very "downsizing" act simply deepens the hole as lay-offs decimate Joe's desire and ability to spend. Can the buck survive the coming crunch? Survive perhaps, but not without being beaten up badly in the process. Put in frank terms, there is simply too much U.S. debt paper in circulation. As the realization begins to dawn that this wall of paper will of necessity have to (sooner or later) be "written off", canny players will get the sell-off underway. History is filled with many similar events and so far, fiat currencies have rarely emerged from "printathons" other than in tatters. Delightfully, I know that like many on this thread, you like the smell and feel of the "barbarous relic". (g) Best, Earlie