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To: GST who wrote (151572)	1/17/2003 8:24:42 PM
From: Victor Lazlo	Respond to of 164684

You miss the point. Alomex stated something that is not true. I merely set Alomex on the straight course.

To: GST who wrote (151572)	1/17/2003 8:34:13 PM
From: Victor Lazlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

<< the Federal Government deficit, State deficits, consumer spending, the value of the dollar and the glut of productive capacity with more of that being in low-cost economies like China. >> China enjoys high and rising unemployment, much higher thatn the 6% current in the US. China has capacity gluts galore in just about all sectors, and prices are plunging. There are no value adds that can withstand competitors. There are really no Mercks or Intels or Microsofts in China, only cheap high-volume copycats. Most of what is made in China is a commodity. If you can make wooden nickels two cents each, who cares? Consumer spending in China is so low it's nearing crisis levels. This is partly what did in Japan, and now it's happening in China. Banks are being forced to give bad loans after their previous bad loans to many companies with phony balance sheets and faked 'profits.' I think within the next 18 mos we'll see a giant Enron/Woldcom scandal wave sweep across China and all the slick phony baloney will come out in the open.

To: GST who wrote (151572)	1/18/2003 2:47:54 PM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

Japan's pre-eminence in Asia challenged World Bank says China may become region's key driver By ANTHONY ROWLEY IN TOKYO WORLD Bank president James Wolfensohn yesterday challenged Japan to make bold economic reforms to enable it to 're-assert leadership' in the region and to provide a counterweight to China. business-times.asia1.com.sg

To: GST who wrote (151572)	1/18/2003 2:56:51 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 164684

China The Fastest-Growing Oil Consumer In 2002, IEA Says Friday January 17, 7:08 am ET LONDON -(Dow Jones)- The International Energy Agency has upped its 2002 growth forecast for oil demand in China, saying it was likely the fastest-growing consumer of oil last year. In its monthly oil market report, the agency raised its average demand growth estimate for 2002 by 20,000 barrels a day, or 5.7%, to 280,000 b/d,. biz.yahoo.com

To: GST who wrote (151572)	1/19/2003 2:35:14 PM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

From Morgan Stanley...(17 Jan 2003)...Just China bit... China’s industrialization will likely have a similar impact on commodity prices as the post-WWII reconstruction in Europe and Japan. It is already having a discernible effect on some commodities. For example, Chinese demand is already the determining factor for palm oil and iron ore prices. Palm oil is the coating material for instant noodles. China’s consumption was about 22 billion packets last year and is growing at 8-10% per annum. Palm prices collapsed during the Asian Crisis, as the two biggest producers -- Indonesia and Malaysia -- went through extreme devaluation, and their competition passed lower production costs on to consumers. The price bottomed in early 2001 and has since doubled, although it is still one-third lower than the pre-crisis level. China accounts for almost 100% of the increase in global demand for steel. This is because China accounts for almost all of the global growth in the construction sector. The increase in building startups has averaged 40 million square meters per annum over the past seven years, which is most of the global increase. China’s infrastructure growth also accounts for most of world growth. This is why iron ore prices have stayed firm for a decade. Gold could be the next commodity to become affected by Chinese demand. The total global supply is about 4,000 tons per annum. Chinese households have money to buy gold for the first time. If the preference for gold in Hong Kong or Taiwan is any indication, Chinese demand could be quite significant. If the Chinese accumulated one ounce of gold per person over the next 20 years, it would absorb half of the global supply. Platinum could even be better. Young Chinese women consider gold old fashioned and prefer platinum, which has the fortunate translation of "white gold" in Chinese. Half of the platinum demand is for jewelry. The de-coupling between gold and platinum prices in the past five years may have something to do with Chinese demand. While China may be a bullish story for commodities, we do not expect it to lead to higher inflation. In fact, China’s demand for commodities leads to declining prices in the finished products. When commodity prices really start to run with China’s growth, they may well become negatively correlated with global inflation. morganstanley.com