To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (4999 ) 1/17/2003 11:48:35 AM From: Jack Hartmann Respond to of 25522 BoA on INTC and capex Mark F. FitzGerald Intel Lowers Cap-ex – Again * Banc of America Securities LLC currently maintains a market in this security and otherwise purchases and sells securities of this company as principal.: AMAT, NVLS, KLAC, INTC. * Intel (INTC, $17.95, Neutral, covered by Doug Lee) announced during yesterday's conference call that they are planning to spend between $3.5 and $3.9 billion on cap-ex for 2003. This is down 21% from the $4.7 billion Intel spent in 2002 and down 49% from $7.1 billion they spent in 2001. * In 2002, Intel spent 50% of its cap-ex on manufacturing equipment. Intel expects to spend 50% of its cap-ex on manufacturing equipment in 2003 as well. This is a source of additional disappointment for semiconductor equipment companies, as there has been anticipation recently that Intel would increase spending on equipment relative to overall cap-ex this year. * The cuts suggest that Intel expects to spend $1.75 to $1.95 billion on equipment in 2003, about $400 to $600 million less than it did in 2002. * Intel intends to focus 90% of its cap-ex on 300mm, 90nm technologies. This means that semiconductor equipment companies with strong portfolio of leading edge products, such as Applied Materials (AMAT $15.36, Buy), Novellus (NVLS $33.45, Buy) and KLA-Tencor (KLAC $39.65, Buy) will mainly benefit from Intel's spending plans. * The timeline for Intel's 300mm Fab 11x and Fab 24 remains unchanged and none of the semiconductor equipment companies are seeing “pull-ins” of orders for Intel's Fab 24. * Intel's cap-ex as a percentage of projected revenues for 2003 is at 14% (compared to 18% in 2002 and 27.5% in 2001). It is expected that spending at Intel will stall at current levels for coming year. Intel now accounts for ~17% of the global spending on semiconductor equipment.cnet.com Jack