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To: Shack who wrote (63965)	1/17/2003 3:34:30 PM
From: The Freep	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

COT shows more short on the S+P but less so on the NDX. Actually, at this point the commercials are just barely short the NDX. Can anyone tell me when the last time they were net long the NDX was? the freep

To: Shack who wrote (63965)	1/17/2003 4:00:27 PM
From: skinowski	Respond to of 209892

Boarding, when done well, is spectacular... At my age I'm not willing to take the required great number of falls 'down' the learning curve -g. Will stick to skiing, which I've been doing since the age of 5 -ng. Just walked in - the first impression is that the QQQ's are closing right over the trendline out of Dec. 31 low. A perfect spot for a bounce - or, for a gap down under the line. Promises an interesting Tuesday morning. ...The rise in VIX is sluggish, ticks are moderate, put/calls - nothing special... Not very bullish.

To: Shack who wrote (63965)	1/17/2003 4:52:19 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

Anyone got a bead on the USD here? It appears to be in a 3 or C down off the highs last winter: stockcharts.com[h,a]waclyyay[df][pb50!b200!c20!d20,2!c50!c200!a111.31!a108.09!f][vc60][iUb14!Li10,10!Lh5,5!Lp14,3,3!Ll14!La12,26,9][J6472495,Y]&pref=G As such, a reasonable target would be 98, and maybe 93 if it is a "C" down. There is Fib support at 100, but this weekly chart is looking downright sick right now. The monthly appears to have a cluster of support at 97-98: stockcharts.com[h,a]maclyyay[d19900101,20030117][pb20!b50!b200!c13!c20!c50!i!d20,2!f][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Lg!Li10,10!Lh5,5!Lp14,3,3!Ll14]&pref=G The target for this wave, if it's a "C" or a 3, could be 93.

To: Shack who wrote (63965)	1/17/2003 8:07:18 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 209892

From Brian I mentioned a couple of weeks ago how EWI had pegged this week as a Fibonacci turn week, due to its proximity to other peaks and troughs in this bear market. They also pointed out this afternoon that every wave 2 since 2000 has ended with a key reversal week. The larger degree wave 2 that ended on December 2 ended with such a week, and this week all the major indices recorded reversal weeks with a full wave 2 count in place. This probably means that the correction from December 31 is over, and we are now in a wave 3 down. This is a wave 3 from December that is in a wave 3 from March 2002 that is in a wave 3 from March 2000. When a wave is of a high degree like this one, it can be very swift. We probably got a first taste of that this week. stockcharts.com I updated the counts on the chart list this afternoon. There still is the possibility of a count in which we head higher than 935 on the S&P. Under that count we just likely finished wave B of an A-B-C correction, where we would now head up in wave C. This seems to be highly unlikely though, given the news this week and the state of most of the technicals. Most S&P charts on the list were at turning points; the VIX, the SPX/VIX, and the Put-Call charts. The stochastics on the daily chart all turned down this week as well. The S&P also closed today below its 50 DMA. If this is wave 3, the October lows will be broken. The first chart on the chart list shows the S&P's decline through this bear market and how the sell-offs have turned around consistently in the area of a Fibonacci level – March 2001, September 2001, and July & October 2002 all turned at Fib. retracement levels. The last one was the 61.8% retracement of the 1990 lows at 778. There are several Fib. levels that may be important if we do break down below the 2002 lows. The next Fib. retracement level from the 1990 lows is 78.6% at 568. But if you look at larger degree waves like the one that started in 1974 and ended in 2000 as well as the one that started at the lows of 1987 and ended in 2000, other levels come up. 61.8% from 1987 = 727 61.8% from 1974 = 643 78.6% from 1990 = 568 78.6% from 1987 = 502 Up to now, the ends of waves have aligned with retracements from 1990. It will be interesting to see if that continues, or if the S&P decides to switch over and follow a correction from another starting point. Ending at 727 would seem to be unlikely, because then the wave 4 correction could only be 40 points – unlikely, but certainly possible. But if it follows the pattern it has made thus far, this wave 3 decline will end near one of those points. O.K., enough of my babbling! This was a big week for the market, and I'm sure you all felt it. Next week should make the counts even more clear. All the Best, Brian