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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (25922)	1/17/2003 3:48:15 PM
From: Broken_Clock	Respond to of 36161

Yes, i believe average price/year is the correct projection. Right now the big bad bear Andy Smith is saying 4330. that is very doable for PDG, FCX and others.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (25922)	1/17/2003 3:54:08 PM
From: Canuck Dave	Respond to of 36161

Ok, here's my two cents worth. I think a lot of previously well correlated cause and effect relationships will break down in 2003 and you'll see all kinds of bizarre and unexpected behavior. The reason for this is the US started messing with gold from 1995 on to promote a strong dollar policy. This upset one of those well known correlations between real interest rates and the price of gold. It also created all kinds of other imbalances. As long as the US economy was perceived as strong, a relatively small amount of activity in the gold futures market could quite effectively control both gold and the currencies for quite a long time, and the money poured into the US. Only three problems. First, the foreign exchange and other financial markets are much larger than the gold markets and certainly bigger than any one institution can control. Second, the US isn't earning those cheap imports they consume. Third, the Fed is losing credibility as it abandons any semblance of fiscal responsibility to paper over (literally) its previous excesses. The currency markets smell trouble. And they should, because there is trouble. Now a whole lot of pent up forces are being let loose, and the virtuous cycle of the nineties is reversed. The result is going to be all kinds of spikes and dips. Wait until some hedge fund goes belly up holding large underwater positions. You ain't seen nothing yet! CD