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To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (4025)	1/17/2003 5:38:27 PM
From: Sam Citron	Respond to of 13403

OT I wouldn't call myself forlorn, at least just yet. I made a decision well over a year ago that I would be happy to accumulate AMAT shares at 16. So I sold the 2003 LEAP puts and waited. I still have substantial cash reserves and may buy more upon further weakness. Today I was glad that I own some health care (WLP, LH) that helped withstand the beating in the Naz. But as I look ahead, I know that it is absolutely essential to the political future of the Shrub that the stock market of 2004 look substantially better than the stock market of 2003. And I have no doubt whatsoever that he will pull every string at his disposal to make this happen, even if the turnaround that he engineers is unsustainable. So I am happy to be long at this juncture and will be ready to do further buying ahead of a 2004 turnaround (or hopefully sooner). At least that's how I see it for now. I also see the prospect of substantial recovery as soon as the cat and mouse game in Iraq comes to an end.

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (4025)	1/18/2003 7:30:24 PM
From: Sam Citron	Respond to of 13403

OT HDD Industry selection from a conversation Barrons Roundtable, Part II, w/ ART SAMBERG, Chairman and CEO, Pequot Capital Management, Westport, Connecticut: Samberg:...In tech, the only thing I'll mention is disk drives. It was a crummy pick last year in all regards, other than that the fundamentals played out. There was an interruption in the second quarter when IBM announced it was getting out. Whenever a major player gets out of a business, inventory gets dumped on the market. In a more rational world, people would realize that that just accelerates the consolidation, and they would look through it. But we are in a data-point-driven market, so the stocks actually went down. Confirming that there might be a positive trend here, Western Digital, Maxtor and Hutchinson Technology all preannounced better earnings. Q: Exactly what did they say? Samberg: The preannouncements were major. Maxtor reported 6% gross margins in the September quarter. In the December quarter, margins rose to 15%-16%. In Hutchinson's case, the change was just as dramatic. They announced they would earn 50 to 65 cents in the December quarter and 24 cents in the quarter they reported on Nov. 14. The estimate for that quarter had been 10-to-15 cents. The stocks moved up. Now they've consolidated. Why? Seagate Technology came 'round with an IPO and started to talk about inventories creeping up again. The first calendar quarter is always down seasonally and sequentially for this business. It will be down about 10% sequentially this year. There is a lot of fear that inventories will blow up again and the story will be over. I don't think it's true. The pricing-discipline story remains intact, relative to prior cycles, when the industry almost went under and inventories ballooned to eight to 10 weeks. They will top out here, and you'll see decent demand again in the second half. These companies are not going to add capacity and shoot themselves in the foot any longer. They can beat earnings estimates on a consistent basis for the next 12 months. The Street thinks Maxtor will earn 25-35 cents. In my view, they can easily do 40 cents. Neff: Is there a price at which you'd buy Seagate? Samberg: Yes, right right around here. The stock is around 10.50 a share. The stock now sells for 0.7 times sales. It's a good one to put away for a while. Black: I own Maxtor and Western Digital. I saw Seagate. All the good news is out on the company's gross margins. They are already over 26%, the highest level in the industry. There's no more real operating leverage. But Maxtor and Western Digital are turning around. They have rising operating leverage. Samberg: No doubt. But if Seagate blows it, it's over for all of them. So you need the discipline at Seagate to make the Maxtor story work. It will work anyhow, but it won't work nearly as well. online.wsj.com

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (4025)	1/18/2003 7:34:33 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13403

Here were Samberg's Roundtable picks from last year: Price Price Percent Company Symbol 1/7/02 12/31/02 Change Western Digital WDC $6.86 $6.39 -6.85% Maxtor MXO 7.17 5.06 -29.43 St. Jude Medical STJ 36.39 39.72 9.15 Varian Medical VAR 33.73 49.60 47.05 Amgen AMGN 55.69 48.34 -13.20 Hypercom HYC 6.5 3.73 -42.62 online.wsj.com As you can see, he hasn't changed his stripes. <g>