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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (15822)	1/18/2003 10:37:15 AM
From: Steve Lee	Respond to of 19219

I think the bounce will come tuesday then that will be it. No more nas 1400+ for ten yrs or more... Take that bearishness as a contrarian signal if u will, but better than judging it on selected articles or internet posters, have a look at $VXN, $VIX, put/call, stochs on the weekly and daily charts, index Bullish Percents, Investors Intelligence. These factors look at how invvestors en masse are actually using their money, rather than what an inrepresentative sample are saying. And these factors are all screaming massive complacency in the face of historically excessive high valuations.

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (15822)	1/18/2003 10:41:18 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19219

Explain why you think Bush's Plan is not full of Sht. Most of the dividends go to IRA so what will that do? Much of the rest goes to extremely wealthy individuals (Gates, Charles schwab, etc) that will make out like bandits. Tell me what will this do to the pricing of municipal bonds? Hint: borrowing costs are likely to be higher for cities and states. What does any of this have to do with jobs? What is the cost? What is the Benefit? ZERO this year (might not get passed) More than likely ZERO or close to it, for something close to forever (or until that stimulus is no longer needed). I think his plan is huge pile of smelly but costly sht. It was an obvious attempt to booster the stock matket, and it has already warn off IMO. But that is my view. Obviously you think this plan is something special, so tell us how this is going to stimulate the economy. 14 frigging rate cuts could not stimulate the economy sufficiently. Why is this garbage going to do it, when consumers are teetering over a grand canyon of debt and jobs being lost left and right to China, and companies reluctant to expand (rightly so) because of massive overcapacity. Greenspand and Bush have been reckless with monetary expansion on a wing and a prayer that consumers could keep the economy going until business expansion kicked back in. Now we have massive debt at the state, federal, personal, and corporate levels, enormous balance of trade issues, consumers who are all abut tapped out (and retail sales show it), and we still have mammoth overcapacity in autos, fiber, PCs, phones, etc etc etc. Tell me how in H a dividend cut fixes ANY of those problems. Heck, tell me how it fixes 2 of them. M

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (15822)	1/18/2003 10:48:05 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19219

and finally, the biggie, BUY and HOLD is DEAD Buy and hold IS dead. The public has yet to see it. We had an insane bull market for 18 years. Massive misallocation of capital, massive overcapacity, and we now are losing jobs left and right for deflationary threat in China. Bear market tend to last 1/3 as long as the previous bull market. Give this one another 3 years minimum of sideways to grinding down action. Look at Japan. We are following right in their footprints. They at least have savings, the average US household is deep deep in debt. Japan pushed on a string for years and we are doing exactly the same thing. This can last far longer and go deeper than anyone here thinks. M