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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BigBull who wrote (66797)	1/18/2003 5:44:13 PM
From: bela_ghoulashi	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

Now here's an interesting thought (I can't quite believe it was an intentional cause, but it may be a beneficial effect): January 18, 2003 The Purpose of Inspections You know, I link to Steven Den Beste's site more than I probably should; I feel like I'm a scavenger cleaning up the scraps left behind by a big predator. But here we go again. I think Steven is missing a fairly big piece of the puzzle; he still assigns too much importance -- or rather, the wrong kind of importance -- to Hans Blix's see-no-evil weapons inspection. The belief is, apparently, that Blix will report enough violations that we can claim that Iraq is in material breach, and then we unleash the hounds of war. Of course, Blix and most of the members of the UN Security Council are steadfastly opposed to that outcome, and will deny that sufficient evidence of violation exists to justify the use of force, blah blah friggin' blah, you've heard it all before. We attack anyway, the Europeans are humiliated, etc. That outcome lacks the finesse of earlier moves of the Bush administration; it's much more their style to shame or outmaneuver their opponents into going along with his plans, than simply to defy them outright. And it is extremely unlikely that Bush would allow his strategy to hinge in any way on Hans Blix's conduct and judgement. Bush and Blair would not make the kind of force commitment they have made unless they already had compelling evidence in hand. So are the inspections just a smoke-and-mirror show, something to pass the time while our forces are being deployed? Are they just a sop to our fair-weather allies? No. Blix is performing a vitally important function. Not, mind you, the function that he thinks he's performing, but vital nonetheless. It is unrealistic to expect that the inspections would actually discover Iraq's stores of WMDs; hiding them sufficiently well -- in some cases by transporting them out of Iraq entirely -- is simply too easily done. But keeping the weapons hidden, while simultaneously preparing them for battlefield use -- that is effectively impossible. As long as the UN inspections are going on, Iraq's chemical and biological weapons are neutralized, removed from the field of battle, while our own preparations proceed unhindered. And by the time the Iraqis can move again, it will be too late; the shooting will have already begun. Hans Blix will have neutralized the one semi-effective means the Iraqis had of resisting the Anglo-American invasion, and will have done so entirely unwittingly. Amazing how this legendary dimwit of a President keeps outsmarting all these smart people, isn't it? Posted by Kevin at January 18, 2003 02:39 AM \| TrackBack lazypundit.com

To: BigBull who wrote (66797)	1/18/2003 8:27:02 PM
From: NickSE	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Thanks for the article. Based on the hints being dropped, seems like we might have one or more in protection already. My bet is we've already been talking to a few. Officials believe that there could be 'a large nuclear find' in the near future, making action inevitable. 'What we will make clear is that there will be no half-measures,' said one Number 10 official. observer.co.uk "If you are looking for proof of weapons of mass destruction, I can show you pictures," Powell said. "In the coming days we will make information available that confirms our impression and our stance." stuff.co.nz