Exile at the 11th hour?
New York Times
nytimes.com
Saudi Arabian Leaders Press for Iraqi Forces to Oust Hussein
Fearful Saudi Leaders Seek a Way to Budge Saddam Hussein
By PATRICK E. TYLER
IYADH, Saudi Arabia, Jan. 18 — Increasingly desperate to avoid war, Saudi Arabia is engaged in a campaign to incite Iraqi security forces to overthrow Saddam Hussein if he continues to refuse to step down or go into exile, officials here say.
The Saudi leadership is advocating Mr. Hussein's removal as part of a war-avoidance strategy even as the kingdom signals Washington that it will cooperate extensively with an American military buildup in the Persian Gulf, including offering the use of crucial bases and airspace, Saudi officials said this week.
It seemed possible that a number of Arab and Muslim states could join the effort this coming week as Turkey seeks to assemble Iraq's neighbors for urgent discussions in Ankara, Turkey's capital, with an explicit agenda of averting military conflict, though a number of Saudi officials said they considered this a remote possibility.
Turkey's prime minister, Abdullah Gul, said on Friday that he had encouraged Mr. Hussein to consider stepping down and, separately, a senior Saudi intelligence officer is said to be engaged in discussions with Mr. Hussein's son Qusay, on a proposal to offer amnesty to the Iraqi leader along with an exile home for his members of his extended family.
Iraqi officials have denied that such talks are under way.
New reports of a Saudi plan aimed at heading off a war by encouraging Mr. Hussein's removal, perhaps through a United Nations Security Council resolution granting amnesty to senior Iraqi officials who assist in his ouster, have circulated in recent days. Saudi officials cautioned, however, that while they were formulating a general amnesty plan, there was no concrete proposal yet.
"The Americans want to get Saddam out by military means, and we want to get him out by psychological intensification," an adviser to the Saudi royal family said. "The most important thing for the generals and everyone else in Iraq is to separate themselves from Saddam, especially if he wants to kill himself through resistance and through war that will take everyone with him."
Another adviser to the royal court said senior officials here were pressing the campaign mostly in unofficial statements that they know will be broadcast into Iraq and through private diplomatic and intelligence channels, "because no one wants this war" and because "no one wants to be quoted publicly as advocating the overthrow of another sovereign state."
The kingdom's day-to-day ruler, Crown Prince Abdullah, is seeking to demonstrate, aides say, that he and other Arab and Muslim leaders are doing all they can to avert a military assault on Iraq without directly challenging the Bush administration's position that war is coming if Mr. Hussein fails to disgorge the weapons of mass destruction that Washington asserts he is still hiding.
Part of the Saudi strategy is undeniably focused on public opinion here and more broadly in the Arab world, where public opinion is opposed to an American-led attack on Iraq, even though Mr. Hussein is reviled by many Arabs.
At the same time, many Arab leaders appear to believe that any option that removes Mr. Hussein without resorting to war is far superior to a destructive military campaign.
"I don't think any leader loses by not going to war," said one adviser to the royal court. "We want the Americans to slow down.
"With hundreds of United Nations inspectors in Iraq, wouldn't it make sense to wait until the end of the year since we have Saddam under control?" he asked. "Doesn't it make sense to avoid the $100 billion cost of a war and to try to engineer Saddam's removal in the meantime?"
Saudi officials said they were not in direct contact with Iraqi military leaders, but were seeking to influence them through public statements that emphasized that Iraq's destiny was in the hands of the guards and officers who have preserved Mr. Hussein's power for 23 years.
Despite statements from Baghdad that Mr. Hussein is not negotiating exile offers, reports here continue to circulate among Saudis close to the royal family that a high-ranking officer in the Saudi Interior Ministry visited Baghdad in December and opened discussions with Mr. Hussein's son Qusay on a proposal that would allow Mr. Hussein and his extended family to go into exile. The offer was made in a detailed presentation that included a pledge from the House of Saud to honor an amnesty in perpetuity no matter who takes the throne after King Fahd.
While some Saudi officials have denied that such a mission took place, others described it as a continuing discussion in intelligence channels between Qusay Hussein and senior officials in the Saudi intelligence directorate, perhaps with Egypt's involvement.
Separately from these exchanges in intelligence channels, Saudi officials have increased their warnings to Baghdad that time is running out and that if an amnesty or exile agreement cannot be reached, Arab leaders hope that the Iraqi military and security services will undertake the riskier course of action of forcing Mr. Hussein from power.
"It is better to convince others in Iraq to do something than to expect Saddam to do something at this point," one official said.
Both Crown Prince Abdullah and the Saudi foreign minister, Prince Saud al-Faisal, have made public statements in recent weeks that Arab states should be given an opportunity to provide an exit strategy for Mr. Hussein if Iraq is judged by the Security Council to have failed to comply with Resolution 1441, which demands a full accounting of its secret weapons programs.
"Iraq is dear to us," Crown Prince Abdullah told an audience in Riyadh this week. "Its people are our people, they are a precious part of the Muslim and Arab nation. If the United Nations, God forbid, takes the decision to declare war, the Arabs will have only one request, that is to be given a chance to talk with Iraq about a solution capable of preventing a war."
It seemed possible, some analysts here suggested, that Mr. Hussein's refusal thus far to accept an amnesty offer that would allow him to abdicate and leave Baghdad with his family has prompted the Saudis to ratchet up the pressure by calling on Iraqi officers and security forces to overthrow Mr. Hussein. Still, the Saudi initiative dovetails with American prewar aims of trying to separate Mr. Hussein from his generals.
"I don't think Saddam will ever leave his country," a senior Saudi diplomat said, "and the history of efforts to remove him is not a history that has revealed success."
In late December, after the Saudi intelligence officer was said to have visited Baghdad, Prince Saud dismissed the reports, but added that "inter-Arab contacts, whether in secret or in the open, have not stopped and all Arab states are involved in the attempt to avoid the war."
In Damascus, Syria, Mr. Hussein's cousin, Ali Hassan al-Majeed, said this week that any notion that Mr. Hussein was negotiating to go into exile was an "absurdity." Mr. Majeed would be likely to join Mr. Hussein if an exile offer materialized. |
