Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kech who wrote (31393)	1/19/2003 1:02:24 PM
From: kech	Respond to of 197191

Went back to Goldman Sach's quarterly numbers to check this some more: 03 02 Dec .39 .23 March .32 .20 June .29 .24 Sept .27 .31 Sum 1.27 .98 So if March guidance is actually closer to .39 than .32 based on actual chipsets being similar to Dec then we have 03 02 Dec .39 .23 March .39 .20 June .29 .24 Sept .27 .31 Sum 1.37 .98 But if in turn there is guidance at this earning report that June is 10% off March we have: 03 02 Dec .39 .23 March .39 .20 June .35 .24 Sept .27 .31 Sum 1.42 .98 But if unless there is a total collapse in sales for 4th quarter we would normally see some nice increases in Sept over June. Adding the 30% sequential increase from June to Sept 02 in as the seasonal increase in 03 gives Sept 03 earnings of .35 so we get: 03 02 Dec .39 .23 March .39 .20 June .35 .24 Sept .35 .31 Sum 1.49 .98 This doesn't seem all that improbable and basically just rests on the assumption that the growth to the levels already announced is consistent with guidance and we continue to get normal seasonal increases thereafter. By the way, a price of $36.8 with $1.49 earnings in 2003 is a p/e ratio of 24.6, pretty reasonable.

To: kech who wrote (31393)	1/19/2003 1:53:35 PM
From: Jim Mullens	Respond to of 197191

Tom, Thanks for your comments on Qualcomm’s earnings preview and guidance. Regarding- 1. >>”This means they would have met SSB's forecast in the first three quarters, with the expectation that 4th quarter shows some pickup from 3rd normally. So even if 4th is the same as June low end, earnings for 2003 would be at $1.52. Right? “<< Right, That’s the way I see it. In looking at Tony’s chart on “Seasonality of handset shipments by Quarter” (London Briefing), in the last 3 years there has been an uptrend in the 2nd half, with the uptick starting in the June quarter in two of those years. In that chart Qualcomm shows a sizable uptick starting in the June Quarter for CY03. ………….EPS ………….Q Oriq……Rev est……………………………..Rev# est (history 2nd half up) Q1……...$0.365…….$0.396 (8.5% inc in MSMs……..$0.396 Q2…………………….$0.396 (Pac Crest-MSMs flat)….$0.396 Q3…………………….$0.356 (down 10% ??.................$0.435 (up 10% seq)) Sub tot……………….$1.148 Q4…………………….$0.396 (flat w/ Q1 &2)…………...$0.479..(up 10% seq) FY03…..$1.175…….$1.544………………………………..$1.706 2.>>” Any further thoughts about what to expect in earnings announcement and timing of future guidance? I believe Qualcomm will hit $0.40 as a minimum. That is based on a 10% decline in ASPs which I don’t believe is happening. With flat ASPs the royalty piece would be higher, perhaps bringing the total to $0.42? Regarding the timing of guidance, I still believe throughout the balance of the year Qualcomm will guide higher two times a quarter, first MSMs and followed by revised EPS for the upcoming quarter at the quarterly conference call. We should get revised MSM guidance for the March quarter and an indication for the June quarter. EPS should be guided up for the March quarter, and the FY as well. Looking forward to Wednesday- Jim