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To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (15816)	1/20/2003 1:09:41 PM
From: Bill Harmond	Respond to of 57684

Everyone can keep a secret! reuters.com

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (15816)	1/20/2003 1:59:42 PM
From: fedhead	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57684

Sentiment seems fairly bearish considering that we haven't violated December lows. (I think Barron's had a cover about the Debt bomb and WSJ is talking about a double dip) I think we are in a trading range between December lows and Decmeber highs. When we get to the high end of the range sentiment gets bullish and we selloff. When we get to the low end of the range it gets bearish and we rally. Though I remain a bear I do think we need to break out above December highs to suck in everybody including the bears into the bull train and then we get the train wreck. Maybe the market in its perversity will first take out the December lows to suck in all the bears into the bear train as well as inducing the bulls to relinquish their shares before going up and taking out the December highs. So NDX at 1200 , S&P above 1000 wouldn't surprise me in the next few months. In the end I believe this remains a traders market where it is best not to have any long term commitments to one's positions. Anindo

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (15816)	1/20/2003 3:03:56 PM
From: hmbsandman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57684

What puzzles me is that in the early 90s, unemployment in Santa Clara county was higher..I think it peaked around 12%, and its about 7-8% now. But things didn't seem so gloomy back then. It was like, yes, Lockheed is laying off, but Cisco is hiring :) I definitely do not remember anyone seriously questioning the relevance of Silicon Valley. Is the increased doom and gloom because everyone believed all the hype in the 90s? Not one tech company has been unaffected by the downturn. Maybe the whole overcapacity thing was worse than we thought. SC