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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jon Koplik who wrote (31402)	1/20/2003 8:36:55 AM
From: Jeff Vayda	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 197154

Three Holiday Monday Morning Observations: 1) The market in India is screaming like a squadron of 747s in formation take-off. Similar noises have been heard from other markets (Korea, on occasion) and in other technologies. (After the camel's nose has entered the tent and announced there is a gorilla at the reins.) 2) Past history has shown Dr J et al, to be very observant and capable. I for one, believe that they have learned their lesson about 'forward guidance'. Years ago they were caught off guard by the Korean subsides and burned by the 'analysts' over reaction. Many things are beyond their control, but they can manage forward guidance to insulate the company from the short sighted swings caused by analysts' over reactions. They are holding in reserve order announcements so that they can even out the results over the year. 3) There is no way they would have plastered "The Best is Yet to Come." on the cover of the Annual Report with out some VERY STRONG support from the state of CMDA worldwide. Have a good one, Jeff Vayda

To: Jon Koplik who wrote (31402)	1/22/2003 1:15:34 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 197154

* Corn Brains * SI search for first reference = Ramsey says: Message 18137533 Unicom and India are both making Sprint PCS look like Corn Brains, though Sprint is positively intellectual compared with the Globalstar marketing disaster. It remains to be seen what the intellectual level of NewGlobalstar will be. Unicom has been 'giving away' CDMA phones cheap all year and now has 7 million subscribers. India sells for what the market will bear: Message 18377165 They both understand that they have capacity advantage and need to get market share up fast and make money when their systems are busy. Bad luck for the high-priced competition which lacks capacity. Great for consumers who get lots of really cheap minutes to gobble till they are full. When figuring out how the heck to sell our Kiwi cdma2000 CityPhone service, we pretty much concluded that giving away a LOT of phones in key areas, with "all you can eat" monthly charges, would get a critical mass of users, who would stimulate others to buy as part of the local calling network effect, which doesn't require other telecom ripoff interconnection and allows LOTS of talking at low prices. That would save billing and other dramas too. No billing, just prepay. No bad debts. It seems that India and China are soon going to be the big CDMA markets since they have figured out how to get people buying. I suppose there isn't any worry about cannibalizing existing markets in India and China, so they can easily see the way to get a lot of business in a short time. "Stack it high and sell it cheap" is great for mass markets but anathema to old-style telecom monopolists. Selling into the top of the Bell Curve is the place to really make the big bucks. Within a standard deviation of the top of the curve, there are a LOT of people with most of the spending power for such services. Rich people won't spend a lot more because they still only want 1000 minutes a month. Neither will they pay any Corn Brain price that some marketing genius can think up [as Globalstar thought they might]. They didn't get well off by blowing all their money. Mqurice