Hello JW, One errata: <<calls rise from govts and corporations for China to devalue its yuan and reduce its worldwide deflationary pressure on prices, on wide class of products going beyond technology, leading to geopolitical confrontations>> ... I am sure you meant "revalue" instead of "devalue".
I think your Script is more accurate than not, and that we will witness the happening of many elements of the Script in the course of 2003. All very exciting, but potentially damaging.
The overall play-time of the Script may go beyond 2003, thus giving all who wants to play an opportunity to participate in the grand taking of the new century.
My overall theme for 2003 is somewhere in here … achamchen.com
I have withdrawn the sniper patrols …
Message 14920299
November 30th 2000
… I was trading the big momentum when that was called for and safe. Our combat style must change in response to the threats. Learnt that on my on-line death match games.
Talking fundamentals will get me into trouble only if I short. I do not believe myself enough to short unless NASDAQ goes back up to 5000 (takes some imagination to envision that).
Deciding not to buy based on fundamentals will not get me into trouble as I have never thought of "money not made = money lost" until December 99 / January 2000, and that was when I decided to go against my emotions and start unloading, trim back, cower in the corner, wait for the screaming in the arena to begin.
Now, my health points are up, ammo plentiful, anti-gravity boots strapped, platinum/gold armor suited, and watching from up on high, through a sniper scope, and see lots of heads being blown off, and lots of goodies left next to the bodies.
Through the scope, I also see GE, KO, along side the CSCO, EMC, and ORCLs. Oops, CSCO seems to have just taken a shot on the shoulder
I have mobilized (all CDs of every currency denomination have been cancelled) the combined-arms troops to within striking distance of many likely trouble spots, to be rapidly deployed, to furiously engage the opposition, ferociously release the fire storms, and then scoot for home bases on the high seas, beyond the line of sight horizon, to wait, once again;0)
Message 15481977
March 10th, 2001
… The dark basement still has whispering voices within. I toss in a few grenades (buy orders) every so often, and have them blow up in my face. It is OK. My armour vehicles, close air support helicopter gun ships are arrayed around the perimeter looking for the opportune moment, the moment of maximum pain from the suppressive fire that the market can bring to bear. We may have to wait a while, pending new data ...
I intend to play the currencies, gold, and shares leading up to the obviously likely short-term clash, and leading down from the observably likely quarrel's victory, and then the continuation of the intuitively evident perpetual conflict, in the midst of ever-necessary long-term structural economic ‘adjustments’ across the globe.
The facts are so clear, the truth so apparent, and yet, we still have fellow-threaders believing in the sustainability of the unsustainable, and the maintainability of the GreenskaPut, orchestrated by the benighted Maestro.
I will most likely switching from gold/non-USD currencies to USD money and resource assets, and then switching back again to current allocation, but leaving a beachhead of USD denominated resource equities. The "when" is the key; this will be comparatively easier than when I switched out of USD, because I am on USD/HKD based accounting and so the risk is therefore more tolerable.
I feel energized, and suspect 2003 will be volatile and therefore friendly, full of crisis and therefore partners.
achamchen.com
2003 YTD NAV is up 3.21% on the combined efforts of Euro, AUD, CAD, CHF, China shares, and of course, gold.
Once again, I note for Maurice's sake, the most obvious trades Message 18344188 are the best wagers:0)
Chugs, Jay
P.S. Meanwhile, the other Script continues, first with …
Message 18467744
Recapitalisation mooted for China's big four banks
… so that the shopping experience is better …
Message 18467754
China Telecom eyes South Africa
P.P.S. BTW, to strike pre-emptively, I state that the fellow and fellowette threaders who view the seemingly bearish posts as pessimistic are perhaps either simplistic or maybe naive, even both, because behind each bearish bet is a bullish wager. |
