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To: mishedlo who wrote (297)	1/20/2003 5:55:00 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 1210

this is what I wrote >>I'm not saying our exports will grow, just not shrink as fast as our imports. Makes sense to me -- let's see what happens. << I also agree -- recession is going worldwide, but many of these countries we export to are already in the doldrums. We have further and faster to fall -- that was all I was saying. Projecting an increase implies that exports fall faster than imports by a wide margin since we are in "deficit," i.e. a 10B drop in exports is 10/80 -- a 10 B drop in imports is 10/120. To keep up, exports have to fall considerably faster in percentage terms. To widen the gap they have to fall very fast on a percentage basis vs. imports. See? It doesn't make sense. Look at the typical reasoning that is provided for growth in the deficit -- give me a minute to edit this post and I'll provide you a link to an article that postulates a widening trade deficit. Message 18466324 see -- this postulates increased consumption and a turnaround here for a widening gap -- getting it the other way is just improbable, IMO.