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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (5070)	1/21/2003 12:50:22 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

"any thoughts?" I think the market doesn't like uncertainty, and we are certain to get a lot of uncertainty, with wild swings in sentiment, over the next few months. Either of these two scenarios could play out, or anything in between: Rosy: As our troops get in place, all our reluctant allies get in line, building a coalition as broad as in 1991. At the last minute, we get UN blessing. Then, Saddam is overthrown in a palace coup, just at the "rolling start" to the war. Bush gets his "regime change", we declare victory and all the troops come home, with almost no shots being fired. North Korea, scared that they are #3, accepts a large bribe in return for verifiably ending their WMD programs, and that crisis is also settled peacefully. UnRosy: We invade Iraq, with only the Brits and Israilis happy about it. As our troops scour the streets of Baghdad for Saddam, there are a series of nasty incidents, causing civilian casualties. We can't find Saddam (or Bin Laden, or the Anthrax letter-mailer,both of whom resume their activities) and we can't leave Iraq or it will callapse into caos. As the months and years go by, anti-american riots intensify throughout the Moslem world, destabilizing and then overthrowing a series of our client states: Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan, etc. Europe, led by a solidly pacifist Germany and France, sits on the sidelines as we lose the War on Terrorism. Bin Laden (and a dozen copy-cat groups) gets numerous secure sanctuaries, and a billion-strong civilian base of support. I can't see stocks going up until the uncertainty gets resolved. There is a large risk that the uncertainty continues for years (and stocks grind lower no matter what the economy does), and/or that we suffer some major political/military defeats (and stocks spike lower like in September 2001). I am currently net short the market. The only stock currently in my buy-range is ARMHY, a British company. My largest postition, by far, is short semi-equips.