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To: ild who wrote (215720)1/20/2003 11:24:39 PM
From: reaper  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 436258
 
i have no issues with his take on what his various indicators are saying about upcoming economic growth...

that said, i think he's wrong about wages and service inflation. look, we aren't going to get an answer on this for 2-4 YEARS. as usual, since EVERYBODY (bulls and bears alike) keep telling me that wages and service prices simply CANNOT decline i feel even better about my prognosis.

(note that he does caveat with 'barring a plunge in monetary velocity'. this is precisely what i am anticipating)

i would also note that while everybody and his brother (and dog) has been calling for the end in the bond bull for over two years my treasuries keep increasing in value. so maybe i'm onto something... <g>

on another note, see that the President of TOY left for 'personal reasons'? they must have excellent news coming up, and he would like others to get the credit.

Cheers



To: ild who wrote (215720)1/21/2003 10:04:22 AM
From: ild  Respond to of 436258
 
Global: Double Dip Redux

Stephen Roach (New York)

morganstanley.com