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To: Sig who wrote (10390)	1/21/2003 7:07:10 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 13815

Message 18472086

To: Sig who wrote (10390)	1/21/2003 9:28:27 PM
From: Sig	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13815

How the market looks to me: 1.. LTBH for 11 months or more can be OK, but it has to be a good stock and its best not to count on profits for 2 or 3 years. No portfolios , as two or 3 could vanish . Surplus money only no mortgage no margin 2 There is a bubble yet to be corrected. Thats the great surplus of brokers and funds which only knew the good days. As they churn and trade stocks seeking winners, its rapidly sopping up the overall value of stocks . Without new money pouring into the market we are going down. Much money came into the market via 401' s and 529's .A steady bountiful harvest for funds and they could not lose. Investors have caught on, and there will be much less investment from those areas. 3 There has been lots of talk of sidelined money -a statement which I put in the same category as the concept that the market always goes up. I doubt there is as much "set aside" as is claimed but its not coming back to equities until the market volatiliy declines - which it has shown no signs of doing. Gold seems to be attracting some of that money today. Summary 1. For LTBH think way ahead maybe 3 years and a tortuous time at that 2. For ST- very risky. If you do get a ride up the chances are high its going to get hit bad. So chose well and wear a parachute 3. For popular stocks, institutions own over 1 bil shares of Msft ( which will double in qty), Csco, Orcl, Dell, etc. They have bought all they need Do not need more to control the prices. And as some of the funds dissapear as they well should they may be selling Altogether I see little attractiveness here except for trading the channels Sig