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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (8305)	1/21/2003 1:42:41 PM
From: Jack of All Trades	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

I don't think the stock market is effecting capex spending... I sell hitech equipment (Printed Circuit Boards) and nobody is using the stock market as a reason not to buy. The reason not to buy is the fact that biz is not stable, one week orders flow in, the next week nada. In my biz, China has come into the US and is buying all the high tech equipment going for 10 cents on the dollar. Thus they are building as good a product as their American competitors, but for 40-50% cheaper. At one time many of the US Board Shops thought the quick turn Proto Type market would stay in the US, but 5 day spins are now going overseas. Companies can now get their product in 2 days from China, so they only need 3 days to build it. I have some US companies turing product in <24hrs and the Chinese will not be to far behind that in the next year or so. My answer to counter act this is to increase the time in customs. Randomly delaying products for a week or so will deter some from going outside, Bush could use the terrorist argument for that. At least corporations will be inclined to have a local and off shore source for their products. BTW, this would hurt my company as my products are made in Japan, but would give me a chance to sell something... No more PCB mfg in US and I have no one to sell to... <NG>

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (8305)	1/21/2003 2:43:41 PM
From: Jim McMannis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

If you want to raise stock prices, cut the cap gains tax on selling them. if you rally want them to go up. Add the cap gains back in on sale of a house. Then people will shift money back to stocks. maybe no like before but they will. I was just watching CNBC. They said housing starts still very strong. People panicing to get in? On the other hand...they reported evictions/forclosures etc are really on the rise in maricopa county Arizona. Jobs scarce. It's beginning. Starting to crack. The "for rent" signs are taking a big jump. This is the first sign. FSBOs all over the place too. Yet another sign of the "hot" peak. At my local community college, IT courses are nearly empty. RE courses are packed. Including mortgage broker. Jim

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (8305)	1/21/2003 3:14:09 PM
From: MSI	Respond to of 306849

Liz, there need to be BUYERS, and just deflating a bubble isn't enough explanation. Wage-earners buy things that prime 2/3rds of the economy. Current legislation doesn't create buyers. It creates wealth-hoarders with a little bit more wealth to hoard, who (and this is the point of the legislation) quite naturally flow more funds to GOP campaigns and offshore deals at the hightest levels. It won't buy lots of votes, tho', so Bush & Co. are fiendishly grabbing all they can, in case they're out in '04. If things go further to hell as I fear, the only thing that can possibly keep Bush & Co. in is martial-law type event. Disclosure: I've liquidated everything except rural r.e., and defense-related tech work from an "undisclosed location" LOL!