Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lurqer who wrote (11973)	1/21/2003 7:23:32 PM
From: abuelita	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

but didn't the double digit inflation last longer than the spike? rose

To: lurqer who wrote (11973)	1/21/2003 8:13:33 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

first blow was financing VietNam with new USTrez debt that accounted for the first $1 trillion the lousy mid-1970's recession was principally based upon the quadrupling of OPEC oil prices in 1973 our economy had to absorb an incredible blow in cost the "energy crisis" title first was written then Watergate compounded many financial problems in 1973 ironic that OPEC slammed us just after Watergate hit we were vulnerable as a nation, and they knew it we also assisted Israel during a brief war in 1973 foreigners departed our stock markets in droves as a result the USDollar took major hits, but came back our US leaders responded in two big ways: 1. they arranged for Saudi and other Arab oil nations to recycle their huge windfall profits back into USTBonds 2. they enlisted Fed Chairman Volcker to produce inflation which immediately screwed the Arabs on the value of their new debt investments !!! they will never forget the doublecross betrayal our economy suffered mightily from almost $2 trillion by then in federal debt, rising interest costs, and a deep TRIPLE DIP recession that is right, three mid-1970 recessions the post-VietNam condition was replete with malaise, distrust, anti-establishment aura, rock & roll, and heavy duty drugs we had to inflate our way out, and we did BIGTIME BIGTIME late in 1970's, the gold price reflected the successfully engineered officially sanctioned inflation policy then Volcker's new job was to subdue inflation which he did during Reagan's terms in office sure, inflation in the 1970's but to counteract both VietNam costs and OPEC costs this time is much much different and dangerous because our entire nation has accumulated 5-7x more debt and our federal debt is up to $6.4 trillion I expect 2004 to have a $1 trillion fed deficit alone so many forces will sink the dollar, it aint even funny if 2 or 3 are staved off, the other 23 will hit it instead this is like a dike with 25 entire sections leaking horribly the Federal Reserve has a 5% chance of successfully warding off deflationary forces by means of monetization efforts I dont give it much chance at all it is like putting a skimcoat of cement over the entire dike the erosion will be deadly, steady, relentless, and universal eventually the entire dike will simply explode then we will face deflation in earnest the meter for failure on the Fed Monetization efforts will be the TENyr TNote yield if foreigners (and Americans alike) believe the official efforts are futile, they will sell the longend, and keep the shortend liquid, thus producing another sloped yield curve we may see some more continued flight from stocks into bonds on the next scary downleg, but ... I FULLY EXPECT TO SEE LONGRATES COMING BACK UP, FRUSTRATING THE HELL OF THE FED !!! most of my fellow Americans are simply spoiled consumer addicts who have no concept for debts and their deadly effects, are as fat as they are debt-ridden, trust the system (which they fail to comprehend) far too much, and are truly ripe for slaughter / jim