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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (27627)	1/21/2003 11:45:58 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Greenspan shows his true colours: Message 18471631 Maybe Mq is right........... I mean about AG. -ggg- DAK

To: TobagoJack who wrote (27627)	1/22/2003 3:09:48 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

<I see the NZD is going up strongly, and it is likely that Maurice is holding a bag full of USD, slowly diving into the abyss. This positioning, together with a anchore's weight in QCOM, can prove damaging.> Jay, The squealing here is starting as exporters realize their NZ$ returns are plunging and after-tax profits look bleak after a few years of fun. The NZ$ has zoomed from the low of US39c to US55c in two years. That's about 40%. That's a big change, albeit only back to where it was a few years ago. Yes, I have a large batch of US$, but those are intended to be invested in China [and India etc] via QUALCOMM and the like, but only when the share prices in the USA drop to a level where other buyers have abandoned ship and frightened sellers are looking for a buyer of last resort. I have sufficient NZ$ allocation for the next few years, so the relative rise of those $$ has been fine by me. We just happened to swap to a more expensive house before the rise and not only has the NZ$ value gone up since then [mid Y2K] but house prices have gone zippity zoom too. One would not wish to be too greedy would one? The Reserve Bank of NZ is now in a quandary. Do they cut interest rates to stop the $K rise and risk inflationary mayhem and an overheated housing market and consumer credit boom which is already overheated, or squeeze with increased interest rates, but therefore an accelerating dollar and import enthusiasm as import prices drop further? Best to get Uncle Al to try to jawbone the US$ back into line by mumbling something about the gold standard and stuff. I quite like betting with Uncle Al by holding his $$, even though my derisory 1.1% interest return isn't fun in the long run. It will not be too long before he starts raising interest rates again and people will realize the dollar is NOT going to disappear in an inflationary puff of smoke or deflationary black hole of total implosion. Mqurice PS: Incidentally, if he raises interest rates, companies like QUALCOMM with large stashes of cash will report improved bottom lines. Oh, I just realized, I should go and check the local price of a Lexus. With the exchange rate changes, they should be quite affordable now in NZ$. Heh, heh!! With cyberspace, that was easy: lexus.co.nz