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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (2829)	1/22/2003 10:30:31 AM
From: 4figureau	Respond to of 5423

Why stop now!

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (2829)	1/22/2003 10:54:08 AM
From: 4figureau	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5423

Venezuelan Central Bank Suspends Trading Wednesday January 22, 2003 3:10 PM CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) - Venezuela's central bank suspended its foreign exchange trading for a week starting Wednesday to try to keep the country's currency, the bolivar, from further plummeting in the fallout of a 52-day-old strike that has crippled oil exports. A new foreign exchange policy will be revealed after five business days, the Central Bank and the Finance Ministry said in a joint statement. Central Bank director Domingo Maza would not give more details. The announcement led to speculation that the government was planning to impose exchange controls to protect its depleting foreign reserves and halt the bolivar's slide, which has lost a quarter of its value this month. ``It sounds like exchange controls are on the way,'' said Miguel Octavio, executive director of local investment banker BBO Financial Services. The suspension means that Venezuelans cannot buy foreign currencies for five business days. The government said it would continue to pay its foreign debts. Exchange controls could help strengthen the bolivar by limiting the amount of dollars that individuals and banks can buy. But they could also hurt businesses that depend on dollars to pay for imported goods. Venezuela's economy is highly dependent on imports - about 50 percent of food is imported. Business leaders, labor unions and opposition parties launched a strike on Dec. 2 to demand that President Hugo Chavez resign or call early elections. The strike has slashed Venezuela's oil production by two-thirds - crippling an industry that provides 70 percent of export revenue and half of government income. The bolivar currency reached a record low of 1,853 to the dollar Tuesday. It has lost 25 percent of the its value since the beginning of the year, after losing 46 percent of its value in 2002. The depreciation has contributed to 30 percent inflation. Traders said the Central Bank has been injecting up to $70 million a day to protect the currency. Venezuela's foreign reserves stood at $11.05 billion Monday, down from about $12.5 billion before the strike began. Venezuela also has about $2.9 billion in a rainy day fund that absorbs excess oil revenue. Opposition and government negotiators are studying proposals made by former President Jimmy Carter to end the dispute over Chavez's rule. The Nobel Peace Prize laureate proposed two plans Tuesday. The first entails general elections and an end to the strike. The second proposal calls for both sides to prepare for a binding referendum on Chavez's presidency in August, the midpoint of his six-year term. Venezuela's constitution allows such a vote. The first plan would amend Venezuela's constitution to shorten presidential and legislative terms of office and stage early elections. It calls for the opposition to end the strike and for the government, which has a congressional majority, to move quickly on changing the constitution. Amending the constitution requires the approval of congress and a popular referendum. A so-called ``Group of Friends of Venezuela,'' a forum of six countries - the United States, Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Spain and Portugal - has been formed to help end the standoff. Diplomats involved in the initiative will hold their first meeting at the Organization of American States in Washington on Friday. A key point is the fate of workers at Venezuela's state owned oil monopoly. Some 30,000 of 40,000 workers are striking. Chavez has fired more than 1,000. Carter said his proposal would have strikers return to work but let the government prosecute anyone accused of sabotaging the industry. Chavez was elected in 1998 and re-elected in 2000 on promises to help the country's poor majority, but he has failed to remedy the nation's economic ills. Opponents blame Chavez's leftist policies for an estimated 8 percent economic contraction in 2002. Chavez blames it on opposition attempts to destabilize the country. guardian.co.uk

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (2829)	1/22/2003 11:07:18 AM
From: 4figureau	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5423

International gold hedge book continues to shrink >>"We wait with interest to see next quarter's figures, which will reflect in detail the sharply appreciating US dollar gold price seen in the closing months of 2002," said Ted Reeve of Haliburton Mineral Services in Toronto. "We expect this to have a substantial bearing on the next set of calculations."<< By Adrienne Roberts Published: January 21 2003 4:00 \| Last Updated: January 21 2003 4:00 The international gold hedge book continued to shrink in the third quarter of 2002, contracting by about 5 per cent, according to a recent study by Haliburton Mineral Services and Virtual Metals. The research is based on a gold hedging indicator, sponsored by NM Rothschild, which looks at the impact of all contracts a producer enters into using the net delta, which calculates the impact in terms of an equivalent sale of gold into the spot market. The study, which covers the cumulative hedging activities of 98 gold producers, found that the global hedge book declined by 4.8m ounces (150 tonnes) to 86.6m ounces (2,692 tonnes). From September 2001 to December 2002 the total fell by 15m ounces (466 tonnes). "We wait with interest to see next quarter's figures, which will reflect in detail the sharply appreciating US dollar gold price seen in the closing months of 2002," said Ted Reeve of Haliburton Mineral Services in Toronto. "We expect this to have a substantial bearing on the next set of calculations." In terms of years of production committed to price protection programmes, the collective gold producers still had 1.9 years of output tied to hedging but this was down from the 2.2 years of 12 months ago. Australia's commitment to hedging remained virtually unchanged at 2.8 years. The report found that the greatest decline in exposure has come from the African-based mining companies, at 1.4 years down from 1.8 years seen in September 2001. Over the 12-month period the Africa hedge book has fallen from 27.3m ounces to just under 21m ounces. The consolidation in the international hedge book has been a function of the mining industry going through a restructuring, "but the appreciating international gold price over the past two years has certainly played its part", said Jessica Cross, chief executive of Virtual Metals. "The almost exponential growth in hedging seen in the 1980s and the 1990s occurred in an environment of weaker US dollar gold prices. In an improved price climate, further reductions in the exposure to price protection should not come as a surprise," she added. news.ft.com

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (2829)	1/22/2003 1:02:24 PM
From: 4figureau	Respond to of 5423

New April highs: GCJ3 Apr 2003 361 361.4 359.1 360.8 +2.2 12:27PM

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (2829)	1/22/2003 1:16:23 PM
From: 4figureau	Respond to of 5423

Hard-rock café crowd hits jackpot Individuals shift attention to natural resources By Thom Calandra, CBS.MarketWatch.com Last Update: 10:44 AM ET Jan. 22, 2003 >>Later this week, we'll report on several leading analysts in the exploration sector, including Robert Bishop of Gold Mining Stock Report and Cook, the geologist at Global Resource Investments Ltd. The Vancouver Gold Show is regarded as ground zero for the exploration business.<< SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) - Individuals, sensing a stock-market washout, are opening their portfolios to the suggestion of alternatives, such as commodities and foreign-denominated cash. For most Americans with retirement savings and investment portfolios, the stock market has been the investment of choice their entire lives. That's changing as stocks and the American dollar continue their journey south and commodities markets exit years of slumber. "A 10 percent to 15 percent addition of commodities in a stock/bond portfolio not only increases return but also reduces volatility," says James Tu, director of investment research at Gerstein Fisher & Co. in New York. Commodities as a group - from grains to gold - rose 25 percent in 2002 vs. declines in all major equity indexes. Tu points out the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, a basket of agricultural, mineral and energy products, returned an average 11.78 percent a year between 1970 and 2002 against 10.88 percent for the Wilshire 5000 (97199001: news, chart, profile), which represents the entire U.S. stock market. Gains in natural resources are making stocks look like yesterday's e-mail, and providing profits for the "hard-rock café" crowd that follows metals and minerals miners. The Commodity Research Bureau's main gauge (XX:1864498: news, chart, profile) is up another 3 percent since Dec. 31. Gold, until last year one of the most distressed of the natural resources, on Wednesday surpassed $360 an ounce for the first time in six years. Several noted researchers see continued sharp gains for gold as the dollar marks steep losses against most major currencies in coming days and weeks. See: Researcher points to imminent bullion rise. "Although always leery of random acts of nature, my personal opinion is that we are standing at the early stages of a major move in gold, regardless of what happens in Iraq," says Brent Cook, a geologist and minerals exploration analyst at Global Resource Investments Ltd. Cook's research on Southwestern Resource Corp. (CA:SWG: news, chart, profile), which is digging in China, Rio Narcea Gold Mines (CA:RNG: news, chart, profile), which is active in Spain, Virginia Gold Mines (CA:VIA: news, chart, profile) and other explorers pinpointed some of the sector's biggest stock-market gainers in 2002. "We are about to see a commodities boom develop over the next two years," says Cook, who will speak this weekend at the Vancouver Gold Show in British Columbia. "This scenario will evolve in an environment in which we are acutely short of new mineral resources and prospects." Later this week, we'll report on several leading analysts in the exploration sector, including Robert Bishop of Gold Mining Stock Report and Cook, the geologist at Global Resource Investments Ltd. The Vancouver Gold Show is regarded as ground zero for the exploration business. "I believe a major uptrend has been confirmed in gold and gold stocks," says Ian McAvity, editor of Deliberations on World Markets in Toronto and a director of Central Fund of Canada (CEF: news, chart, profile), the only bullion fund that trades as a security in the U.S. stock market. "A very major downtrend in the dollar is well under way with no end in sight." McAvity's newsletter, nearing its 700th issue, relies on rigorous data and decades of historical charts. The Central Fund of Canada depository for gold and silver that McAvity co-founded 20 years ago is the only stock-market avenue into bullion. Several organizations are at work on exchange-traded funds that will act as gold proxies in the U.S. and Canadian stock markets. See: At $1,000, gold may outpace miner equities. Investors, eyeing steady gains in gold, gold-mining shares and other commodities as the dollar continues an 18-month slide, are starting to wonder how they can shift into natural resources and foreign-denominated cash. For many of them, the popular press is short on meaningful strategies that focus not on paper, but on hard assets. See: Foreign CDs entice investors. Scott Zabolotzky, an individual investor, asks, "What is the best method for the average investor to buy into the gold before the rush?" See: Gold proxy to boost bullion demand. Richard Lombardo, another Main Street investor, notes, "Cattle, coffee, and gold seem to be a better place for the next couple of years to concentrate some long term strategies." See: Back to the farm for investors. And Robert Shirley logs in to say, "I want to invest in some smaller gold mines but I'm not sure how to evaluate them." See: Gold's gains to spread down chain. Tu at Gerstein Fisher acknowledges it will take cataclysmic events before the majority of ordinary Americans shift their attention, and their hard-earned money, to commodities and away from the paper chase. "The stock market is considered today as the symbol of freedom and capitalism. But investment is not about freedom," Tu says. "It's demand and supply. The gold price (38099902: news, chart, profile) is rising against paper currency because there is too much paper flying around compared with hard assets. So I'm afraid before the current bear is over, a great number of people will have lost all their nest eggs." cbs.marketwatch.com