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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (15874)	1/23/2003 12:29:59 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Respond to of 57684

the topline is still shrinking. I don't care if they are beating some bozo analyst's expectations, it still isn't bullish to have shrinking revs. The problem is you have to be familiar with the climate last january which are the numbers psft is trying to beat. Last jan sebl was a $35 stock, on expectations of 30% y/y revenue growth or more, after one weak quarter that was impacted by 911. Its kindof like the secular bear argument, if you tell me we are in a secular bear until we get to nas 5050, ok fine but what does that really mean? Last january these companies were expected to return to prior growth rates and sebl realistically was expected to hit $50./share. The bottom fell out in march for software. Now here we are 3 quarters later and psft is doing 5% less revenues than last january, thats good, and the topline isn't shrinking from a few quarters ago... only from the very high bar of last year. Anyway with this war in the air we know the mkt is not looking to reward anybody without justification (msft) but enterprise software is way up today, so whatever the expectations were, we beat them.