Good news for Clinton in NBC poll
New York senator leads 2004 Democratic contenders by huge margin
By Tom Curry
MSNBC
msnbc.com
Jan. 23 — The allure of the 2004 Democratic presidential nomination just grew brighter, according to an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll that shows President Bush’s popularity slipping. But for Democrats, the most alluring candidate for 2004 is a politician who is not even formally in the running, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York. The new poll shows Clinton crushing the declared Democratic presidential contenders.
THE POLL, based on phone interviews with 1,025 people on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday of this week, seems to suggest that the 2004 Democratic nomination is more valuable than it was two months ago.
A growing percentage of those polled feel that the country is on the wrong track, a view that makes Bush appear increasingly beatable.
A year ago, only one in five of those polled by Peter Hart and Bob Teeter for NBC News and The Wall Street Journal thought that America was headed in the wrong direction. The new poll indicates that 47 percent of respondents think the country is on the wrong track.
In a poll in September, 30 percent of the respondents said they didn’t approve of the job Bush was doing as president. Now, 40 percent of the respondents disapprove.
NAME RECOGNITION
But at this point, none of the Democrats seeking their party’s nomination has much support for a run against Bush.
The NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows that 39 percent of Democrats want Hillary Clinton to be their party’s nominee in 2004.
She is far ahead of her nearest potential rival, Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, who draws 13 percent among self-identified Democrats.
Fourteen percent of those polled said they were “not sure” who they supported and 10 percent chose Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri.
To some degree Clinton’s popularity among Democrats reflects her universal name recognition.
Many Democrats don’t yet know who North Carolina Sen. John Edwards is, although he has been campaigning in Iowa and New Hampshire for months. But virtually every American, whether a political junkie or not, knows who Clinton is.
Asked about the poll results, one Lieberman associate expressed exasperation that reporters and pollsters were still paying any attention to Clinton, despite her statements that she is not seeking the 2004 nomination.
“She’s not going to run, and she has said she is not. I don’t know why people don’t take her at her word,” said the Lieberman associate, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
PRODIGIOUS FUND RAISING
Another reflection of Clinton’s strength within the party is her prodigious fund raising.
Her political action committee, HILLPAC, which pays for some of her travel and hands out money to other Democratic candidates for state and federal office, is a powerhouse that collected $3.2 million in contributions in the 2001-2002 campaign cycle.
Clinton — unlike the other Democratic contenders or potential contenders — has the freedom to wait and see how events develop over the next several months.
She has such formidable fund-raising skills and charisma that she could defer a decision and let Gephardt, Kerry and the others bleed each other to death financially in a battle of attrition.
One potential problem for Clinton if she were to enter the fray: She, just like Gephardt, Lieberman, Edwards and Kerry, voted last October to give Bush the authority to use military force against Iraq. If anti-war sentiment is especially strong among Democrats in the first two contests, Iowa and New Hampshire, some may find her vote on Iraq hard to accept.
The one potential Democratic contender who voted “no” on the Iraq resolution is Florida Sen. Bob Graham.
Meanwhile, on the campaign trail, former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean has been offering himself as the only genuine anti-war candidate.
The first real test of the candidates’ strengths will come next January in Iowa, where Democrats will take part in the party’s presidential caucuses. In a crowded multicandidate field, Iowa Democrats will play an essential role in winnowing out the weaker contenders.
THE GRASS-ROOTS VIEW
One grass-roots Iowa Democratic activist, Tim Lapointe, told MSNBC.com Wednesday that he, like Clinton, is biding his time before deciding on the 2004 race.
“I honestly am not sure who I would support if the Iowa Caucuses were held today,” said Lapointe, a Mason City attorney and the chairman of the Cerro Gordo County Democrats. “I was and I am a strong Al Gore supporter, and now I’m not sure who to support.”
Lapointe said he has met Edwards, Gephardt, Kerry and Dean.
Dean went to Mason City last year to stump for state Sen. Amanda Ragan, while Gephardt showed up in town to help boost Sen. Tom Harkin’s re-election bid.
Lapointe sat with Edwards at his table at the Iowa Party’s Jefferson-Jackson Dinner last fall.
WHAT HE LIKES
“I like the fact that Edwards is a trial lawyer like me, and comes from humble beginnings,” said Lapointe. “I like that Gov. Dean was a county chairman, like me, and is smart enough to use that to his advantage in small counties in Iowa. I like the fact that Gephardt is a Midwesterner with strong labor ties. And I like John Kerry and his choice for an Iowa campaign manager, John Norris.”
Lapointe said he had not yet met Clinton, Lieberman, Florida Sen. Bob Graham, or Al Sharpton.
“I would like to meet Sen. Clinton and the others, but I have no leaning or strong feeling for any of them,” he said. “This may change as they begin to make personal visits to Iowa, however.”
And Iowa Democrats certainly do expect personal visits, a quiet chat or a one-on-one dinner with contenders.
To show she really cares — and to spark a news media firestorm — all Clinton needs is $236, the price of a round-trip ticket from Washington, D.C., to Des Moines. |
