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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (27715)	1/24/2003 2:32:01 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Happy travels. Keep an eye out for Osama, Jihadis and Jedis. <I must go for the airport now, WAT-WOT-What-Not Manila is first stop. > Mqurice

To: TobagoJack who wrote (27715)	1/24/2003 2:37:50 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 74559

GM, Ford Rev Up Incentives Thu January 23, 2003 07:09 PM ET By Michael Ellis DETROIT (Reuters) - General Motors Corp. GM.N and Ford Motor Co. F.N escalated their price war on Thursday, offering costly new consumer incentives to lure buyers amid signs of slowing U.S. vehicle sales, officials said. GM, the world's largest automaker, said it would waive up to five months of remaining lease payments to its current customers if they opt for a new vehicle. Ford began quietly offering cash payments of $500 to $1,000 to dealers to boost sales of some of its popular Ford brand vehicles. GM and Ford also raised cash rebates by $500 on most of their full-size pickup trucks to $2,500. Jay, things haven't changed. Couple this piece of news above and the fact that Americans are increasingly starting houses. Which means they are constructing collateral for more mortgages.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (27715)	1/24/2003 5:58:54 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 74559

Hedge funds turn from shares to commodities By Kevin Morrison Published: January 23 2003 20:16 \| Last Updated: January 23 2003 20:16 Hedge fund managers have been switching from falling equity markets and taking a fresh look at commodities, pushing gold, platinum and nickel prices to highs not seen for years. Hugh Hendry, fund manager at London-based Odey Asset Mangement, said central banks have contributed to the increasing interest in commodities. "They are able to print money to keep the economy going and that money always finds its way to the fastest rising asset class," he said. "In the 1990s that was Nasdaq and now it looks like commodities." Metals are not the only class of commodities to benefit. Products such as cocoa, wool, soybeans, palm oil, wheat and corn have risen by between 13 per cent and almost 60 per cent since the start of last year. This and stronger metal prices have helped push the Commodity Research Bureau index, a global basket of commodity prices, up more than 30 per cent since the end of 2001. John Reade, a precious metals analyst at UBS Warburg, said hedge funds have been buying into metals during the latest upswing, pointing out the record number of positions on the Comex gold contract in New York. "There is money coming into the gold and platinum market that hasn't been seen for a long time," Mr Reade said. Another fact pointing to the role of funds is that the gold price has risen despite the lack of underlying demand, such as from jewellery makers; global demand in this area fell 12 per cent last year, according to the World Gold Council. Mr Reade estimated that there was a $30 to $50 war premium in the gold price, which was fixed at $364.70 in London on Thursday. As with gold, Mr Reade said the fundamental supply and demand equation in the platinum market does not support current prices. The spot price of the white metal hit $650 on Thursday, a price not seen since September 1986. Currencies are another factor at work. As Mr Reade said: "The fall in the dollar has been a major attraction as many of these commodities are dollar denominated, therefore making them cheaper to European or Asian investors." The dollar is at its lowest level in more than three years against the euro, a four-year low against the Swiss franc and has dropped about 10 per cent against the Japanese yen since last January. Base metals prices have meanwhile been supported by demand from China, which has overtaken the US during the past 18 months as the largest consumer of nickel and copper, which it uses in construction and large electricity generation projects. China's demand for both copper and nickel, which is mainly used for stainless steel manufacturing, is expected to rise again this year, while western demand is expected to remain soft, said Jim Lennon, a base metals analyst at Macquarie Bank. Nickel hit its highest level since October 2000 yesterday in London trading, touching $8,745 a tonne. That follows a 30 per cent rise last year, outpacing gold's 24 per cent jump. Even vegetable oils have benefited from rising prices and investor interest. Rollo Barnes, finance director of London-listed palm oil producer Anglo Eastern Plantations, says the palm oil price has almost doubled since mid-2001 to about $445 a tonne - helping the company's share price almost triple during the past 12 months. Mr Barnes said Odey's Eclectica fund, launched late last year to invest in commodity-related assets, has about 15 per cent of its investments in soybean, wheat, corn and cocoa futures. "I like the prospects for wheat and corn - not that I'm an expert on the latest harvests - but then the people that bought Microsoft during the boom didn't have to know about servers and LANs [Local Area Networks]," he said.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (27715)	1/24/2003 4:36:52 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Okay, we now have parity again after gold losing parity for some time. Being the beginning of the Year of the Sheep, it's a good time to restart the race. Both gold and 10 x QCOM at $370 Hmmm, if I'd swung into gold at Johnson Matthey down in Grafton Road a year or so ago, when gold was $323 and the Kiwi$ was US46c or so, I'd now be about 20% better off [even after entropy losses to brokers etc]. So, I have to say that joining the Aztecs would have been a good move [at least until now]. Demand for gold is down [for jewelery] which is not surprising with the devastation of the wealth effect over the past three years. But demand has zoomed for using gold in mystical ceremonies. Who will be last one in? Who will be last one out? It seems you are right and the dot.com mania has transferred to gold and platinum. Well done. Perhaps I will watch in amazement, as I did with the dot.com craze, as people followed their Mindless Zombie instructions from Uncle Al to bid prices to da moon. There's one born every minute. I guess you might as well fleece them [if you can get your timing right]. That's what sheep are for. Heck, I might even fleece them myself [there's bound to be a futures contract I can buy somewhere, when gold is $2000 an ounce and the mania is confirmed]. Mqurice