To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (42523 ) 1/24/2003 5:46:58 PM From: Haim R. Branisteanu Respond to of 52237 Bushs politics presses the dollar (translation by Alta Vista) Driving downhill of always rapid - course purge uses US government - issuing banks keep still of Anja Struve Frankfurt/Main the high-altitude flight of the euro continues without reduction. Up to the afternoon the community currency up to 1.08 dollar rose and thus to the highest conditions for over three years. In relation to the most important currencies world-wide the dollar thereby suffered the strongest devaluation in the past months since 1987. For the German export trade and industry the risen euro represents no load according to estimate of financial undersecretary of state Caio cook Weser still. "we must be however watchful, which concerns, said the further trend of prices" it at the edge of the world economy forum in Davos. A further devaluation dollar does not lead past according to estimate of economist a way. "it was only one question of the time, to itself the dollar in view of the high US deficit on the balance of payments on current account on driving downhill was gone", says Christian Jasperneite of M.M. being castle. "it becomes ever clearer that this change of trend is lasting." The prognoses of most economists are outdated already now. They had only counted on average to the year end on a euro course of 1,08. Despite the rapid rise foreign exchange market experts consider a common intervention of the issuing banks in Europe, Japan and America at present however improbable. "still the euro-course within a reasonable framework moves. Only starting from a course of over 1.20 dollar became the exaggeration at the markets dangerously ", says Jasperneite. In addition it comes that the falling dollar US president Bush comes only too convenient, in order to set the domestic export trade and industry in motion again and to bring the economic situation in time before the next presidency elections in the year 2004 back in momentum. Therefore the US government will not do according to opinion of experts up to further anything, in order to support the dollar. "place of the earlier policy strong dollar applies now: America first ", says Folker Hellmeyer of that of Bremen to Landesbank. A weaker dollar would have besides the advantage that the low inflation rate in the USA was again heated up. For months US politicians and Notenbanker worry themselves in view of falling rates of price increases before a price purge on broad front. Economists therefore see the attempt in the past Fiskal and monetary policy above all producing Reflation. "solid money is pumped to the economy, in order to prevent deflation. Rising inflation rates accept the USA thereby approving of ", say Jasperneite. Already in November Fed governor Ben Bernanke had made clear that the central bank could stimulate also then still the economy, if the interest at zero had concerned - to the emergency by the purchase of state and enterprise loans. The Fed actually pumps already now substantial liquidity over its open market business to the market - which continues to weaken the dollar. "opposite foreign investors that is nearly a challenge", says Hellmeyer. Besides the attempt America meets to prevent deflation in the own country particularly the euro-zone - and here above all Germany - at the wrong time: "a far rising euro bad message for economic situation and unternehmensgewinne", does not meant only say Ian Harwood of Dresdner small word Benson. "rather thereby the danger of a deflation in the euro area increases." Articles appeared on 25 January 2003 welt.de