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To: diana g who wrote (17417)	1/24/2003 10:08:44 PM
From: quehubo	Respond to of 206191

Diana - I think the outcome you described is quite possible. But I also think it fails to consider how easy it would be for a relatively few loyal patriots to spoil the war prize. Saddam is not in power alone and I expect there are plenty of people who expect to go down with him. Who needs to knock out 1,500 oil wells? Our air attacks will probably take out the electric infrastructure all the enemy will have to do is take out a few oil wells and some export terminals. The first sign of smoke from an oil well before VZ is well on its way to normalcy and oil will skyrocket. I would be very happy if Saddam & Co. all committed suicide tonight and Iraq started holding real elections. Oil service companies would stand to gain from the billions needed to be invested in the energy infrastructure, we would get this war risk premium removed and we could focus on natural gas. Reality sets in and I appreciate that invading a country is quite a bit different than kicking an invader out of a country it has just invaded. Bernard Lewis and Samuel Huntington tell me all I need to know about our clash.

To: diana g who wrote (17417)	1/24/2003 10:32:51 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206191

<There surely are a few extreme Saddam loyalists in the armed forces who prefer to destroy the wells & die fighting rather than submit to the Great Satan, but these are a very small minority, I'm sure.> Unfortunately there are more than a few. Saddam rules Iraq with a carefully constructed group of extremely loyal thugs any of whom would blow up oilfields in a heartbeat. Excepted from Pollack's book "The Threatening Storm": SSO, or al-Amn al-Khas: 5000 thugs The Companions (Murafiqin): about 40 of Hussein's personal bodyguards The Bodyguards (al-Himaya): another ring of about 2000 vicious bodyguards, goons, and mindless robots from Hussein's tribe, al Bu Nasir, totally willing and able to blow up Iraqi oilfields. Special Republican Guards (elite Rep. Guards): four brigades (30,000 troops), superbly equipped and untouched in the 91 PG War. Mostly likely use: defense (and scorchearth)of oilfields and Baghdad. Republican Guard (professional soldiers, mostly Sunni): although outgunned by US troops, fought hard, few white flags ever seen. Respected by US units who encountered them , mostly in last ditch stands situations (73 Easting, Madinah Ridge) Mukhabbarat: basically the Gestopo, size unknown. al-Amn al-Askiriya (military security): thugs who keep an eye on the loyalty of military units. Fidayin Saddum: hand picked goon squads of up to 100,000 under command of Hussein's psychopath son, Udayy. All these loyalists have a lot to lose (their lives) and can be expected to resist bitter and most likely to the end. Further, there is every reason to believe that Saddum will at least attempt to hit, contaminate or destroy both Saudi and Kuwati fields. He might have a good odds especially with the later.