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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: paul_philp who wrote (68619)	1/24/2003 9:56:39 PM
From: Elsewhere	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

[den Beste] And it's going to end up changing the political dynamic inside Europe which has until now fed the process of formation and expansion of the EU. Always easy to contradict den Beste. Many articles in German newspapers are starting to thank Rumsfeld for ridiculing "old Europe" because he pushes France and Germany closer together than ever. Even for slow-moving European politicians the urgent need for a clear external representation has become obvious (the famous "telephone line" Kissinger always asked for). What I agree with is that with the current attitude of the US government towards international law and treaties we are returning to a more Bismarck-like world of power politics.

To: paul_philp who wrote (68619)	1/24/2003 10:13:06 PM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Hi paul_philp; Re den Beste: "The Anglo-American conquest of Iraq will be seen in history as what historians like to call a turning point." One of the primary errors in prognostication is to assume that a trend will continue into the future. The doubtful assumptions here are (1) that there will be a war, (2) that if there is a war the Brits will go along with it, (3) that a war would be a long term success, (4) that the end of NATO will mean the elimination of the wealthier and more populated part of Europe from military activity, and (5) that Russia and China will sit on their hands. It would be rather hard to believe that the whole rest of the world would sit idly by while the US made all the decisions for it. As far as his analysis on the breakup of the EU goes, what is happening is that Britain is being broken away from the EU, not that the EU is breaking up. And for that matter, public opinion in Britain is not in favor of war without UN resolutions. This means that instead of breaking up the EU, what would instead happen is a vote of no confidence for Blair in parliament. The basic fact is that the war season in Iraq is fast slipping away, and still there is no ultimatum from Bush. Several of our key allies have made it clear that without a second UN resolution, there will be no US use of their facilities. That by itself is enough to kill the chances of a war. If anyone believes that a war is a foregone conclusion, I suggest that they make themselves some money by taking advantage of those who think otherwise by putting up their money here: tradesports.com Right now you can buy a contract that says Saddam will be gone on March 31, 2003 (and will be worth $10 if that happens) for only $3.70. If you're willing to buy that $10 contract for as much as $4.50, you can right now find a total of 2 contracts at $3.70, 30 contracts at $3.90, 290 more contracts at $4.00 and another 501 contracts at $4.50. If you buy all these contracts it will cost you a total of $3,538.90, which is the most you can lose (not counting the very small commissions). If Saddam is out of power by March 31st, which is long after the mid February war begin date, you will get back a total of $8230, for a profit of $4691.10. If you are convinced you are betting on a certain victory, this is a very good return for your money. (I.e. 132% return over a ~66 day period is an annualized return of about 10,000 % per annum.) How can you lose? Not only will a war give you the money, but if Saddam gives up and goes to Libya you'll still collect. Saddam is not a young man, and his health is not perfect. A heart attack with the guy will win you the bet just as well as a war. Go for it! -- Carl

To: paul_philp who wrote (68619)	1/24/2003 10:36:59 PM
From: Sig	Respond to of 281500

I had not heard of den Beste. Had to look up his web site, and plan to go back to visit. The man knows his apples,having worked for Qcom He has a good feel for what will control the actions and sequencing of events How long hs he been maintaining that Log ? Sig