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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ilaine who wrote (68632)	1/27/2003 3:07:00 PM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Hi CobaltBlue; Re: "I am not aware of any reason why the US-Turkey alliance should not remain in full force and effect ..." If the US can't even get the Western countries of France and Germany on its side, how could it be imagined that we could keep the Moslem country of Turkey with us? It's clear that Turkey has stronger ties with the EU than the US, and the EU ain't buying a war with Iraq. Re: "... but if it's going down the tubes, we'd do well to ally with the Kurds, who are presently in charge of the Northern No-Fly Zone in Iraq, and are very ardent in their appreciation of the United States." The Kurds, while a people that possess my sympathy, are an outnumbered ethnic group that is suppressed by Turkey, Iraq and Iran. To create a Kurdish state in Iraq would get us involved in a war against all three of those countries. Furthermore, the Kurds are landlocked, and we are a sea power. The only way we could gain access to the battlefield is through the terrain of Turkey, Iraq and Iran. Our actions would have the effect of giving Iran and Turkey reasons to assist in the supply of rebels in Iraq against us. This would make our lines of supply impossible. Note that just keeping the Kurds alive requires massive amounts of effort. Trying to do that and to at the same time fight guerilla warriors in Kurdistan and Iraq is beyond our abilities. In short, we are a nation of sea power, and Kurdistan is a land locked not-a-nation. We can't help them except with the assistance of the neighboring countries. This is similar to the Afghanistan case, but with Afghanistan, we had the assistance of the neighboring nations. Re: "But on balance I believe that Mr. Gul no more represents Turkish military than Herr Schroeder represents German military, and the rest are blowing smoke." The primary military threat to Turkey, as the Turkish military well knows, is not from Saddam but instead is from the Kurds. The government and the military have essentially identical views on this: keep the Kurds down. What has gone on in Turkey is consistent with my prediction that we would get no real assistance from them, but instead just delay, delay, delay. That is, there is no reason for Turkey to fully piss off the US by saying "NO" directly. Instead, they will use the usual expedient of saying "sure, but later". -- Carl