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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (8198)	1/25/2003 11:17:36 AM
From: Alastair McIntosh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95737

Thanks for the link Gottfried. It appears that the low N/U reading suggests that there is a very high level of investor pessimism. Is this not bullish? The summary states: We can make a general statement that a high reading in the Nova/Ursa ratio (N/U) is an indication of investor optimism because more assets have moved into the bullishly poised Nova fund relative to the bearishly poised Ursa fund. Also, low readings represent investor pessimism because the Ursa fund is the subject of more relative asset allocation. Because optimism can be dangerous for stocks, high readings in the N/U should be viewed as potentially bearish for stocks. On the other side of the coin, low N/U readings tend to be bullish. Furthermore: Also, extreme pessimism suggests all the selling has been completed and a rally could be in the offing. It appears to me that the N/U ratio is now down to the levels of early October and that we could soon see a strong rally. Of course, there is no reason why the ratio can't go even lower (it probably will). Like all cyclical indicators turns are easy to see in hindsight but tough to spot at the time.