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Politics : DON'T START THE WAR -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockman_scott who wrote (3650)	1/25/2003 9:30:16 AM
From: Stephen O	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25898

Don't wait for the 'smoking gun' National Post ADVERTISEMENT The debate over whether to attack Iraq has been transformed into a debate over the effectiveness of UN weapon inspections. Hawks say the inspections are a waste of time: The burden of proof is on Saddam. And while he may be making a superficial appearance of co-operation, he is in fact operating a shell game in the background with his chemical, biological and nuclear assets. Doves, on the other hand, see inspections as effective and want them to continue. So long as no VX vial or plutonium stash is discovered, they argue -- the so-called "smoking gun" -- there is no moral or legal case for war. Central to the debate is Saddam's willingness to permit inspectors to interview Iraqi scientists in private, a right guaranteed under UN Security Council Resolution 1441. Until last week, Saddam has flouted that provision, insisting that interviews be conducted under the menacing eye of his state security police. The inspectors might as well have skipped the interviews altogether: In Iraq, the penalty for crossing Saddam is death. On Monday, lead weapons inspector Hans Blix is scheduled to release his latest report, and Saddam is clearly nervous that it will detail a breach of Resolution 1441 sufficiently material to justify a U.S. invasion. So last week, Iraq agreed to permit UN inspectors to interview top weapon scientists in private. The inspectors hailed the move as a major breakthrough, and the French and German governments immediately declared their opposition to an invasion anytime soon. This pacifistic giddiness turned out to be premature. According to U.S. Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz: "We know from multiple sources that Saddam has ordered that any scientists who co-operate during interviews will be killed, as well as their families." American intelligence agencies also insist Iraqi scientists are being coached on what to tell UN inspectors. And occasionally, secret police officers are even posing as scientists, and taking the scientists' places at appointments with inspectors. The BBC also reported this week that the Pentagon has acquired copies of Saddam's orders to Iraqi generals, authorizing nerve gas attacks on coalition troops who set foot on Iraqi soil. The orders are said even to include inventories of the gasses to be used -- gasses Saddam officially denies having, of course -- along with the number of chemical suits and atropine pens available for Iraqi soldiers. British and U.S. sources also say the Pentagon has been building a dossier of Saddam's violation of Resolution 1441. The dossier is said to include stacks of aerial photographs detailing activity at suspected weapons sites before and after UN inspection tours. The Guardian in London even reports the Americans have recorded telephone intercepts between UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan and Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz. Although we don't know the content of those intercepts, one inference is that Messrs. Annan and Aziz are actively seeking to confound inspectors and foil U.S. war planners. While some of these reports may prove unsubstantiated, they are certainly all consistent with Saddam's track record. The last time inspections were negotiated, in 1998, Iraq agreed to them only on condition that Saddam's dozens of sprawling presidential "palaces" be off-limits, that any allegedly "biased" inspector be dismissable on Saddam's say-so, that Iraqi secret police be present during any questioning of scientists, and that Baghdad receive advance notice of planned inspections. As Mr. Wolfowitz said this week, this is not how nations that are truly willing to surrender their arms -- Kazakstan, South Africa and Ukraine are the examples he cited -- deal with inspectors. Historically, Saddam has offered only passive and highly qualifies co-operation -- and usually he has not even done that. His guiding concern since the end of the first Gulf War has been to manipulate inspections and carve out loopholes that allow him to keep his deadly toys. No one knows exactly what Mr. Blix will say when his report comes out on Monday. But we can predict the gist: Inspections are working -- just give us more time. The responses are predictable too. We know already that the French and Germans will insist that an invasion be put off till summer or fall, and will refuse to sanction any military action in the meantime. But now that Saddam has shown he is merely replicating old patterns, it is doubtful that extra time will do the inspectors much good. Increasingly, it appears that the only way the West will find Saddam's WMDs is if U.S. troops march in and root them out themselves. Fortunately, that is exactly what Washington has in mind. © Copyright 2003 National Post