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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (26585)	1/25/2003 12:36:53 PM
From: re3	Respond to of 36161

<<<The 6 day brutal pullback in the HUI that you keep referring to occurred after the HUI ran from 60 to 150 pretty much uninterrupted the entire market was particularly lousy at that time, day traders had entered the sector for the first time, and many of the gold stocks then had gotten overextended. i think hmy hit 19 then, hasn't gotten that high this go-round

To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (26585)	1/29/2003 8:16:31 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

["Slider we both agree on taking profits"] ...I think the big difference between my thinking here on taking the Gold/HUI $ & running (for the time being, maybe even for good ?)is the same that it was during the last Nat Gas & Crude Oil/OSX run.....that being that I saw (and see once again) broad based positive sentiment for the sector morph from realistic return expectations based on the return of positive fundamentals (the bounce-back of the underlying commodity & earnings) to a broad base of investors now expecting speculative-maniaesque upside expectations - ie: Matt Simmons - "new paradigm, multi-year cycle for O&G that was going to happen 2 years ago", calls for "OSX 200+" , that "California was going to create the next goldrush in Nat Gas" and other speculative-maniaesque type of bluesky-ish dreams. Now once again here in Gold, we're seeing and hearing the same type of talk here....upside expectations based on the derivatives collapse, the US entering the next great depression with the accompanying talk of $800+ Gold & XAU 300 - paralleling the talk of California going dark & taking Nat Gas to the moon 2 years ago with a collapse of our power system and the coming new-paradigm in energy. Once we EVER see a broad base of investor expectations start to reach speculative upside levels, based on worst-case, once in a lifetime systemic collapses; it's usually a good profit taking/exit opportunity..... a VERY GOOD, profit taking, exit opportunity. We saw the OSX nearly quadruple from OSX 45 to 150... we had 3,4 & 5 baggers across the sector and an index that over tripled... rarely, in anything other than an actual once in a lifetime speculative-mania evenvironment such as was seen in the iNet, IPO, Tech-mania Bubble of the late 1990's (hopefully we haven't already forgotten those lessons learned ?).... do we ever see broad based sectors reach returns exceeding 3,4,5-baggers it just doesn't happen. We've just seen the HUI run from HUI 35ish back in the Nov. 2000 lows to 150 for the 2nd time here of late. That is a 4-bagger+ for the index....with another recent 50 point pullback run, only to fade at 150ish once again. RARELY in history, do indices exceed those types of returns ! I've learned that the "BIG & EASY MONEY" is usually made in the first parabolic run of the sector's cycle...ie: the uninterrupted run we had from Jan to late May 2001 - when we hit the HUI 150 wall the first time. If one continually takes the "BIG & EASY" run and walks away... you'll continually outperform 90% of the sectors investors imho... and exponentially cut the risk & temptation that forces 90% of the sector investors from chasing & averaging down into that final pullback; that turns into another pullback and another.... and another - that never comes back & where the bulk of the blue-sky believer's give back 30 to 50% of the cycle's run - right back to Mr. Market. HUI 35 to 150 into the face of THIS Bear Market is a phenomenal return. Hell, it's a phenomenal return, if not even a once in a 20+ year opportunity imho. And for those that rode the prior Oilpatch cycle into the Gold play here and banked one cyclical triple into another 4-bagger+ here in Gold...and who haven't already tucked those $ away....go back and read all the post's on the original SI SD during the last OSX & Nat Gas cycle and see how high & broad based sentiment was right at the top and see how very, very few sold directly into those final runs...and notice the actual venomous attacks, riducule and actual disruption that occured on those threads during those times... it's a great study in investor sentiment... incredibly accurate and incredibly valuable once you learn to read it & have the pulse of the sector. ...for what it's worth; we're solidly back in Deja-Vu all over again sentiment territory here once again in this Gold Bull.... a run from HUI 35 to 150 & a 4-Bagger+ wasn't enough (vbg) - no; just like the Nat Gas Bubble & Matt Simmons Blue-Sky new paradigm, this time it's different, the system was going to collapse and we're going to new alltime highs, multi-year upside...yada, yada, yada... its all here once again. The downside is never as bad as the Bear-case and the upside is never as good as the Bull-case. The complete breakdown & collapse of power-markets, or deriviatives markets rarely occurs... to much intervention opportunity etc. I'll continually look into my trading monitor that has my favorite motto boldly emblazened on the top of the screen frame with: Pigs get Fat, but Hogs ALWAYS get slaughtered ! I'll leave the new paradigms & total systemic collapse's to everyone else... it makes for interesting "what if" discussion and yes, it's always possible that we will actually see one in our lifetime; but enough cyclical 3,4 & 5 bagger returns will come our way during that same "lifetime" that if we're all good little "pigs" and can just say NO, to being Hogs; we'll all be just fine leaving them for discussion and not investment. Mine's in the Ca$h Regi$ter...and they ain't getting it back. Ciao~