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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (8200)	1/25/2003 12:00:29 PM
From: Alastair McIntosh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95737

Michael, I agree that a fairly quick and positive resolution to Iraq and the resulting drop in oil will rally the market. The Fed is certainly keeping plenty of liquidity in the system. I am not sure how sustainable the rally will be. Business in general still has significant overcapacity putting a brake on capital spending. The conditions for a strong recovery don't seem to be in place. When a recovery starts there is usually pent up demand to fuel it. Problem is two of the major drivers (autos and housing) did not fall off. Therefore there can't be a significant pickup in either area. In fact I am concerned that consumer spending on autos and housing may slow down tipping the economy into the real recession. I think that the "double dip" scenario may still unfold. As far as timing of 950 on the NAS I think that Zeev is leaning towards mid year or later. Here is his "roadmap": investorshub.com

To: michael97123 who wrote (8200)	1/25/2003 7:47:11 PM
From: Alastair McIntosh	Respond to of 95737

Michael, you were asking about Zeev's call of 950. Here is his current outlook: Here is a new tentative schedule for the next five/six months: We have already had our first top (from the July/October lows) at about 1520 (and 9076 on the Dow) In early December. We failed to get above that in Early January, and we changed the top target on 1/6 (with the Run for the Hills call) to 1447, we reached about 20 points higher (1/13) at 1467. This very poor double top has set us up for a grand two, maybe three steps, Nassacre (GN 03) lasting possibly till late June, interrupted by a major upleg, after the first six weeks or so of the first decline (about mid March, coinciding with "visibility" of "victory" in Iraq). Nominally, I have the first leg down as a decline from 1467 to 1197/1223 by about 2/27-3/5, nominal 3/3 (could change according to Iraq developments or lack thereof) . The model for the Dow has a decline to 7490. That is followed by a sharp anticipation of hostilities (and anticipation of lower crude prices?) bounce to just under 1330 (nominal 1327) and around 7900/8250 for the Dow) ending around 3/24 . The next leg down is about 250 Naz points, to a new post October low around 1080, and 6900 on the Dow, lasting till about mid May with a possible counter move into Memorial day topping around 1200 (7800 on the Dow?) and then the last leg of the GN 03, taking us to around 950, in the first two weeks of July (false mini bounce around 7/2 to 7/8) with a nominal low on Jul 16, Dow just around 6000. investorshub.com