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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: EL KABONG!!! who wrote (27809)	1/25/2003 5:30:36 PM
From: Ilaine	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Kerry - we've all got bicyles, plus we're half a mile from a grocery store and the bus stop. I hope my poor husband won't have to ride his bike 15 miles to work and back! He already hates the commute.

To: EL KABONG!!! who wrote (27809)	1/25/2003 7:10:02 PM
From: Ilaine	Respond to of 74559

>>Saudi may drive down price to take non-OPEC market share bank Oil heavyweight Saudi Arabia may lead the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries into a low price/high output strategy to regain the group's stagnating market share, a bank report says.The report, published this week by Saudi American Bank, or Samba, said that if oil capacity from non- OPEC (news - web sites) producers remains higher than global oil demand this year, as most forecasts suggest, Riyadh may take the painful step of driving down oil prices in a bid to take market share away from non-OPEC producers. "We think it is entirely plausible that if non- OPEC plus Iraq capacity expansion is significantly higher than global demand over the next year, then a Saudi Arabia-led OPEC may well drop its $22-$28 (a barrel) price defense strategy and opt for a higher market share in a lower price environment," said the report by the Riyadh-based Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C - News)- affiliate bank. The International Energy Agency forecasts declining demand for OPEC oil this year, given non-OPEC production rises of 1.5 million barrels a day and global oil demand growth of only 1 million b/ d. Nor does the picture brighten for Saudi Arabia over the next few years. With non-OPEC production growing at around 8 million b/d between 2002 and 2006 and global demand growing at around 6 million-7 million b/d, OPEC and Saudi Arabia won't find room to boost output, the report said, citing industry forecasts. With potentially large increases in Iraqi output over the same timeframe, the demand-supply balance from the kingdom's perspective worsens further, the report added. If Riyadh continues to defend its price band of $22-$28/bbl, Samba says the kingdom would see growing budget deficits and government debt, while non-OPEC would continue to benefit from higher oil prices. The main sources of non-OPEC production will come from Russia, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Brazil, offshore U.S., non-OPEC Africa and Canada. Non-OPEC producers generally invest in raising oil capacity when prices are above $20/bbl. Nevertheless, the report says the option of driving down oil prices would still inflict "substantial stress" on the Saudi budget in the near term.<< herald.kz