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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TimbaBear who wrote (16274)	1/25/2003 10:25:02 PM
From: Don Earl	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78705

Timba, For the last 3-4 months a lot of what I've been trying to figure out is how the current economy, and the near certainty of war, will affect various businesses. For the most part what I end up looking at winds up being a question of 'to short, or not to short', rather than 'how about buying some stock'. I think a lot of folks are picturing the coming war as another 3 day walk in the park like the last time, but there's a big difference on this round. It's a lot easier to chase someone home than it is to dig someone out of their house once they're locked in. Our tactical situation this trip will be crossing a whole lot of desert before getting close enough to attack fortified positions, manned by people who have had 12 years to learn how to hate us. Iraq can't win, but they can make losing expensive for us. I don't like it and I don't approve of it, but those are the cards we're being dealt. There's been a lot of speculation about the prospects for increasing production in Iraq, but what if the idea is to shut down Iraqi production altogether in order to open up access to the ANWR? or to other known US reserves of oil and gas currently under protection for environmental reasons? Americans would be screaming their heads off to tear those areas wide open, and it would be party time for Texas oil money.