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To: NOW who wrote (5120)	1/26/2003 11:25:31 AM
From: Les H	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 29602

The first three tables track the 9-month cycles for the market using the 10-week, 20-week, and 40-week cycles. The cycles are divided into thirds where the first third is green for bullish, the middle third is yellow for bullish in bull markets and bearish in bear markets, and the last third is red for bearish. For the 10-week cycle, they're each 3 1/3 weeks in length. You'll find the colors progressing in the sequence of green, yellow, red, and back to green in the rows of the table. Since the 20-week cycle is twice as long, the colors change after twice as many rows. The table below is the preferred schedule for the 9-month cycle since it's currently in synch with the weekly MACD. The 12-25-9 week MACD confirmed the bottom within a week after the price low. cycle tendencies 10-week 20-week 40-week SPX change high low range Oct 10 start start start 768 none Nov 4 green green green 901 +133 907 +139 N.A. N.A. Nov 27 yellow green green 939 + 38 940 + 39 872 - 29 68 Dec 19 red yellow green 884 - 55 954 + 15 880 - 59 74 Jan 13 green yellow green 926 + 42 935 + 51 869 - 15 66 Feb 5 yellow red yellow 861 - 65 931 + 5 859 - 67 72 Feb 27 red red yellow Mar 24 green green yellow Apr 16 yellow green yellow May 8 red yellow red Jun 2 green yellow red Jun 25 yellow red red Jul 17 red red red The chart can be interpreted as follows: 1) The initial thrust off of the October bottom was expected to end around November 27, or about 6 and 2/3rds weeks from the low. The actual high was two trading days later on December 2. The intraday high was about 15 points, or 1.6%, above the November 27 close. 2) A minor retracement of the inital rally was then expected into the ten week low around December 19. The low actually came in December 27 at 15 points below the December 19 close. 3) Next, A secondary rally was expected to form the three-month high off of the October low. Normally, this should be higher than the top formed in (1). The market made the intraday high on January 13. 4) A deeper correction is now expected into around February 27 as the 20-week cycle is red for both the Feb 5 and Feb 27 rows. I've also included the 22-week cycle for the S&P 500. Normally, the market is supposed to rally about 10-15 weeks, forming a top around week 11, and trough in the 22-week low. The last several times, both the 11-week (or 55-day) and the 22-week dates have flagged major lows. The next turn would be indicated for the week of March 14. If you incorporate this information with the 9-month schedule above, it's looking likely that an important cyclical low will be formed around February 27 and March 14. 22-week cycle Sep 21 SPX trough 966 (week 1) Dec 7 midpoint SPX crest 1158 (week 11) Feb 22 SPX trough 1090 (week 22) May 10 midpoint SPX crest 1055 (week 11) Jul 26 SPX trough 853 (week 22) Oct 11 midpoint SPX crest 843 (week 11) Dec 27 SPX trough 875 (week 22) Mar 14 midpoint SPX crest ??? (week 11) May 30 SPX trough ??? (week 22)