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To: ehasfjord who wrote (17912)	1/26/2003 7:39:19 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 19079

Hi Ehas, Since we have convincingly broken the 200 day average on the NAZ,all indexes have rolled into negatives MACD's, and fast Stochastics have gone to oversold (although we haven't bounced failed and flatlined yet) read that as more time needed to complete the failed rally. I too believe we are in for a retest of the October lows as we put this Iraq/terrorism rout behind us as well. That however is the worst case scenario. A couple of observations: The NAZ,which was most overblown - has corrected the hardest.It also is the first to pop up to and then over it 200 day moving average. The other indexes are in consolidation.They also are not really that far from their respective 200 day ma.They need more time and we'll be positioned for all major indexes to be quietly approaching their 200 day moving averages. I think this is a very positive development.Most market declines don't v-shape bounce.The stop declining by going sideways.Thusly they sneak up on their 200 day ma. They then pop over,fail, pop over again,find support and maybe even get up above and then bounce off.Gradual building of strength - this all eats up time and causes great questioning.The NAZ has already come up to it,failed,popped over it and now dropped below it. Since all indexes have gone sideways since the July bottom and October retest it leaves the 64.00 question as to how this retest will play out. In almost all occasions one should expect a 5% violation of the lowest low.Maybe Since the NAZ looks the fiestiest I might expect the NAZ to show us some relative support - after all ,if this market is to rise - I still believe it will be tech that does the heavy lifting. I'm thinking it will be the S&P and the Dow that gives us the headline new lows, as the NAZ shows relative bouyancy.This will be the result of huge short concentrations in the NAZ being unwound and institutional money wanting to complete positions as stealthfully as possible. Afterall it has been just about 3 years since it was obvious anyone who had positions in the NAZ was way wrong. It would only be appropriate for the market to once again prove that the one place no one wants to be is after all - The one right place to be. Who would have ever thunk it ? gg This looks like a very opportune time to make some excelllent last positions. Just trying to anticipate how the reversal / bottom will look. Your possible scenarios would be welcomed.So fire up that chrystal ball of yours - please.<VBG> Bob