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Politics : Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sea_urchin who wrote (17022)	1/26/2003 9:44:13 AM
From: Gary H	Respond to of 82122

observer.co.uk <Washington sources said the inspectors were now 'on a very short leash.> Seems both Bush & Blair are on a shorter leash with the oil crowd.

To: sea_urchin who wrote (17022)	1/26/2003 9:50:03 AM
From: Gary H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 82122

from SPIEGEL 3/2003 "the oil price could explode" Sheikh Jamani on the consequences of an Iraq war and on his intimate enemy Saddam Hussein Ahmed Saki al Jamani, 72, was the Oil Minister of Saudi Arabia from 1962 to 1986 and thus the dominating figure of the OPEC. Today the "Arab Kissinger" ("Times") leads the Center for global Energy Studies in London. SPIEGEL: Your excellency, what happens, when USA, together with the British, attack Iraq? Jamani: Let's take the worst-case scenario: Saddam Hussein sets his oil fields in fire and destroys with a missile attack the refineries of Kuwait and in the northeast Saudi Arabia. Tens of thousands die. It comes to serious, long persisting losses of production. Within a short time the oil price rises over 100 dollars. No industry can handle such an increase - leads to a world economic crisis. SPIEGEL: Isn't such a horror scenario just pure panicking? Jamani: I am not saying, this is the way it will happen. But this scenario is not entirely unrealistic. After the first shot has fallen, nobody knows, what comes next. Saddam said once, that whoever were to fell him and conquer Iraq, he would not find a land full of people any more - it would a land be a full of tombstones. Saddam is a killer type. If he sees no way out, he is able to take everybody with him. Also with chemical and biological weapons. SPIEGEL: If he has them. Jamani: I do not know. According to my information out of the middle east it is rather probable that he still has residues of his arsenal. I never have met a politician who would be so without scruples as he is.I had to negotiate with him quite frequently. he always behaved in an unpleasant, arrogant and provoking fashion. The dislike was probably mutual. The terrorist Carlos told now in the prison, that Saddam was indignant over the fact the terrorists did not shoot me during the OPEC assault in Vienna 1975, but let me go like other hostages. SPIEGEL: The Americans will do anything to terminate the war as fast as possible. Jamani: Let's take the middle-of-the-road scenario: Saddam falls within a monthly, it comes to bloody fights, but not to the destruction of oil fields - I think this is the most probable alternative. The oil price could explode in this case too, from the present 30 to perhaps 60 dollars per barrel. But then it will soon again get back to normal.. SPIEGEL: And if Saddam's regime breaks down within few days... Jamani: ...then we will indeed see much lower prices than today. Let's discuss the scenario, as desired by Washington: There's a US governor government sitting in Baghdad. According to our studies Iraq could within a very short time nearly double, within one decade even quadruple its oil production.. The unhindered production of oil from other boom regions would result in a real oil glut, which would depress the price significantly under 15 dollars. That would be great for the consumers in the west, but on the other side a disaster for the oil-producing states. SPIEGEL: Would such a development mean the end of the OPEC? Jamani: Definitely. Already today the OPEC has large problems with the fact that individual member states do not adhere to the production numbers as specified by the organization. On the long run a state such as Saudi Arabia cannot survive extremely low proceeds from the oil. But the importance of the OPEC has been diminishing anyhow, one way or another. . SPIEGEL: The impression, that president Bush gave up Saudi Arabia as the political partner and the main oil supplier of Washington, is it wrong? Jamani: At the beginning of his term George W. Bush called up a committee, which under the guidance of the vice-president Cheney should define a new energy policy . The committee decided to reduce the oil imports from the contested and unloved Middle East region, particularly from Saudi Arabia, and to bring them down to zero by 2007. After the 11 September 2001 attack... SPIEGEL: ... where 15 of the 19 assassins turned out to be Saudi Arabian citizens turned ... Jamani: ... US government put at least a part of the blame for the terror act on the Saudi government and want now to terminate the dependence as fast as possible. They count on oil from the Caspian sea, from Russia, from Africa - however the only safe energy source the order of magnitude of Saudi Arabia is the Iraq, the state with the second largest oil reserves of the world. According to our studies the estimations for Baghdad are still much too conservative, the reserves could match those of Saudi Arabia. The oil is of a high quality and extremely easily to exploit - and can be transported to USA using new, politically harmless routes.. SPIEGEL: Which routes? Jamani: Away from the gulf, over the Mediterranean. On one side over Turkey, via the port of Ceyhan, perhaps using the pipeline over a western-friendly State of Syria.. These pipelines are present. I am sure Americans have yet another another dream: that Iraqi oil will be transported west some day via Haifa. SPIEGEL: A pipeline through Israel? It does not exist. Jamani: But it did until 1948. And it would be easy for Americans to it restore given their precise topographic knowledge of the region. Six million barrels per day transported out of Iraq via Mediterranean, protected by the US warships, that is quite feasible. And that eventually means that US some day in the future will in its energy policies not depend anymore on Saudi Arabia that is in throes of crisis and that maybe some day turns Islamic . SPIEGEL: From your point of view this Bush's real reason for war ? Jamani: Yes. Oil is a very, very important thing. Playboys say: Cherchez la femme; Politicians think: Cherchez le pétrole. SPIEGEL: Strategic mental games on the blackboard are one thing, local political situation is something else. How does Washington want to achieve the goal of Iraq developing into an exemplary pro-Western state? Jamani: That is exactly the weak point in American considerations. The present Iraqi exile opposition has absolutely no roots in the country and will have problems to build a feasible government. And when I hear that Bush wants to bring democracy to Baghdad - how is than to happen? Iraq has no experience with democratic institutions. The majority of its ethnically and confessionally multilayered people are Shiites. Should they create the government - with their sympathies for the Iranian brothers-in-faith across the border? The Americans would need magic sources, if their long term intention is to pacify Iraq. That is what makes this war so dangerous: its consequences have not been thought all the way through.. SPIEGEL: Can a recourse to weapons still be prevented? Jamani: I think so, but only on the one condition: if Bush were convinced that an attack would cost him the re-election. But the public opinion polls do not support that, and Bush does not care much about UN. . SPIEGEL: How will neighbor states react to an Iraq war ? Jamani: An average Arab has the worst possible opinion of Saddam; but it does not mean he likes Americans. Many feel hate when it comes to US government, because of their one-sided support of the Israelis and their occupation politics, because of the doublespeak of the west. The terrorism in Arab states, but in addition also in Europe and the USA, will increase to a threatening level. SPIEGEL: The OPEC under your leadership used oil in 1973 as political weapon. The times are once and for all a thing of the past? Jamani: A boycott can not be organized any more, because the Arab governments are too weak. But oil could become again a weapon - in hands of all-powerful Americans. INTERVIEW: ERICH FOLLATH transl DJ 26.jan.03