Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chowder who wrote (17437)	1/26/2003 9:04:17 AM
From: quehubo	Respond to of 206200

Dabum, that is quite easy to answer on my part. You have stated you care nothing for fundamentals and use TA 100%. You evidently have all day to watch the charts and the markets and can change positions in a heart beat. Not everyone has that. At this point in the cycle, I would rather trade part of my portfolio around the anticipation of a big move then sit on the sidelines worrying about missing the next leg up. By the time TA confirms a move up considerable gains can be given up. Good anticipation of the move last Spring gave me a tremendous gain from post 9/11 lows (100% total portflio). Greed and poor anticipation of the next move and I gave most of it back through HC MVK VTS MVK and the others. Your statements tell me that you have personally mastered routine success in applying TA as the only consideration. I suspect a very small percentage of people can do that with success year in and year out. Also it is very rare for me to buy any stock where I did not have a very good feel for the company and the sectors fundamentals.

To: chowder who wrote (17437)	1/27/2003 1:42:11 AM
From: energyplay	Respond to of 206200

Very good questions - " Does it really matter why prices drop? Does the reason for a drop in prices make it any easier to withstand the loss? " Usually it doesn't matter. Belief in a stock story can kill, look what it did in tech. When I don't think I understand a stock, I will follow your rule. When Tampa Electric started dropping, I bailed quick. There's no way I could understand all their financials, of what thier lenders were doing. They got stuck with a loan at 12.5 % ! They should have saved that credit card offer that came in the mail. Stock went down to 10.02, now it's back up, but I was out at about $14 or so and happy (having bought around 11.50) I think in understand what's happening with natural gas stocks. (Greeks had a name for this - hubris) Part of the reason is I realize the time frame for proactive people (like this board the the reactive ones (that I will sell my stock to) is different. A big portion of Wall Street works off past numbers, so until Q4 & Q1 numbers show up, and year to year comparison are big positives, some people won't buy. I have also noticed that most of the energy sector is underfollowed (compared to say the financial sector) and reacts slower to news. This is partly why I can makle money in energy stocks. The only people who look at storage draws, Joe Bastardi, prices other than NYMEX, or have ever heard of Ladyfern ARE DEDICATED ENERGY INVESTORS (not shouting, just emphasing) This stuff is as arcane to the average money manger today as internet routers were in the early eighties, or gallium arsenide, or CDMA. The dedicated energy investors are all in now. Accumulation has occured, and they can't buy much more. Next the stock goes up as the numbers come out, then distribution begins. Right now the stocks drifts lower. The ohter thing I have seen happen goes like this - Big postivie news comes out on XYZ. XYZ stock doesn't move for 1,2,3, days - THEN it stast edging up for 2 days, then one day of 2-3 points, thaen gap up, and more gains until it's up 40-50% on the news. Why the 2-3 day delay ? I don't know. I could specualte, but I don't have a clue. I 've looked at the trading, to see if the volume increased, or some group was knocking down the stock, and I usually don't see evidence of manipulation. I have also seen this take 1-3 months to happen. When the homebuilders like KBH were starting to get good results about 2-3 years ago, they had great numbers, but the stocks weren't moving. Maybe the average money manager needed to lose some more in tech first.